Monthly Archives: April 2016

Politics Author: - April 22, 2016

تعطيل جنيف واحتماليات التصعيد العسكري على الارض

مع انطلاق الجولة الحالية من محادثات “جنيف 3″ بات من الواضح سعي فريق من افرقة المعارضة السورية للتعطيل المفاوضات عبر تبني لغة تصعيدية لم تكن حاضرة بهذه الصورة في جولة المفاوضات الماضية.

الفارق بين طبيعة تعاطي الجميع مع معطيات جولة الحوار الماضية و الحالية يشير ان محاولات التعطيل الحالية مرتبطة تماماً برغبة في تعديل موازين القوة عبر العودة الى التصعيدد العسكري على الارض في سوريا، هذا ما يفسر تصريحات افتتحاح المفاوضات التي ادلى بها قائد جيش الاسلام محمد علوش حول خيارات المواجهة العسكرية و العودة الى التصعيد العسكري.

تزامن هذه التصريحات و التصرفات يأتي مع تزايد الحديث عن عمليات ادخال سلاح نوعي و بكميات كبيرة الى الفصائل المعارضة الامر الذي يمكن تفسيره ان التعطيل الحالي هو عملية ايقاف للحوار السياسي و اعطاء مساحة للظهور العسكري لفصائل المعارضة على امل ان ينعكس هذا التصعيد على مسار المفاوضات بطريقة تعزز وجهة نظر فصائل المعارضة التي شعرت في الجولة السابقة ان المناخ الدولي لم يعد مواتياً لاحتضان جزء كبير من وجهات نظرها خصوصاً في موضوع خروج الاسد الفوري من السلطة. لكن مع تشكل مناخ اقليمي ساعي لاحداث تغيير في معادلة الحل السياسي عبر التصعيد العسكري فان تعطيل المفاوضات و السعي لتحقيق انجازات عسكرية على الارض تصبح اولوية هذا الفريق من المعارضة و الذي يتناغم طرحه مع المناخات الاقليمية المتشكلة في المنطقة.

لكن بالرغم من ان محددات العمل العسكري في سوريا اصبحت واضحة بالنسبة للجميع فهي موجهة حصرياً لمواجهة الارهاب “داعش و جبهة النصرة” الا ان فصائل المعارضة المدعومة اقليمياً تسعى في المقام الاول لكسر حصرية الجيش السوري في مواجهة الارهاب و احداث تغيير جذري في معادلة السيطرة على بعض المناطق الامر الذي يعني فعلياً انها تتحول الي شريك في الحل السياسي فالانجاز العسكري المفترض يسعى لاعطاء شرعية وجود لهذه الفصائل اولاً و يُمكنها من “تكييش” ما تقوم به على الارض سياسياً في جنيف، فتتحول من احد اطراف المعارضة الى الطرف الوحيد المؤثر في المعارضة. لكن هذا لا ينفي احتمالية الصدام مع الجيش السوري في اطار فرض السيطرة على مناطق جغرافية معينة مما يضع مسألة الهدنة امام تحديات السقوط، لكن تبقى هذه الاحتمالية في هذه المرحلة قليلة نظراً ان الثوابت التي تم التوافق عليها دولياً تشمل الحفاظ على المؤسسة العسكرية السورية  و مؤسسات الدولة السورية مما يعني ان التعطيل الحاصل في جنيف هو جزء من استراتيجية تغيير موازين القوى القائلة بان تغيير المعادلة في جنيف يكون عبر التصعيد العسكري في سوريا.

من المهم الاشارة ان نتائج تعطيل الحل السياسي في جنيف لم تعد مقتصرة على سوريا و داخلها بل على الدول المحيطة أيضاً مثل الاردن و لبنان، فاجتماعات “جنيف ٣” ربما تأخذ قديباً بعداً اكبر من البعد السوري السوري لتشمل بعداً اقليمياً، لهذا فان اي تصعيد على الارض في سوريا هو تصعيد ستكون ارتدادته على مجمل المنطقة.

د.عامر السبايلة

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Politics Author: - April 22, 2016

The continuous crisis of the Muslim Brotherhood





It was not unexpected act by The Jordanian Government to close the offices of the old Brotherhood. The government in Jordan has carried on the following legal procedures to consider the Brotherhood group unlicensed; this means that all its activities are illegitimate. Since the Fall of Brotherhood in Egypt, the aftershocks have also reached the Jordanian branch accordingly. The political failure to cope with the political changes has imposed the crisis within the Brotherhood’s Jordanian branch.

Straightforwardly and subsequent to the arrival of Brotherhood to authority in Egypt, the Jordanian branch had the new map of regional power brought to get the MBs power in Jordan. Therefore, their efforts primarily concentrated on carrying out the map of power through many procedures such as: making use of the fall of Bashar Al Assad in Syria. This was apparent in the MB tactics (which left the Jordanian domestic scene and focused completely on Syria); if Syria made the whole scene of power in favor of the Jordan’s MBs, it would, in fact, be absurd to witness MB praying more than 37 times in front of the Syrian embassy for the cause of “fall of Bashar.”

The fall of Mursi in Egypt, unlike the expectations of the MBs, caused a problem within the Group. Particularly that many youth from within the MB felt that the reason behind the catastrophic fall was the rigid leadership mind. The Jordanian branch was not far from MB’s crisis, however; same persons, language and mentality continued to run the scene. This domination has caused various fragmentations within the group, majorly; what happened with the so-called “Zamzam group”. After this division took place, it was customary to fight for the legitimacy of representation of the MB insideout. The problem within MB is much bigger than the problem with the Jordanian state; actually the problem with the Jordanian government is that of a group who refuses to recognize the need of change within the circle itself.

The Jordanian state has seized politically the status of chaos of the MB, yet it is important to notice that the level of crisis within the group is reflected upon the statements and behavior of its leader.  Some observers express a variety of concerns that the Jordanian step against the MB will legitimize the idea violence, provoked by the group, in Jordan.  The answer to these concerns shows that if such political group is willing to use violence, then the problem is in the doctrine of this group, which turns to be violent too. On the other hand, if this group would really consider violence as an option, they should be simply the target of the core strategy in combating terrorism. Inclusively, all this confirms that narration of many that MB is effectively a terrorist group.

The problem will be in the structure of MB, unless there are serious changes from within, on level of persons, language and way of thinking, otherwise; the current crisis has no way out to resolution.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - April 11, 2016

How to counter Sectarianism

Sectarianism seems to be one of the most risky issues that Arab societies should face in the coming future.  Having a fragmented society based on ethnical and religious criteria is seen as a recipe of chaos. However, the major question today is: How to escape the nightmare of sectarianism?

There are no immediate solutions for the sectarian thinking, yet decision makers should believe that this is a very long and complicated process that needs a serious and concrete prompt initiative.  This should begin by believing that today any glimpse of change is really needed in society. Nevertheless, any initiative should also begin by recognizing the problems within the society and getting out of any state of denial. Signs of sectarianism are apparent in many countries in the Arab region; it roots a sense of psychological divisions that usually anticipates the worst scenario of geographical divisions.

The only valid solution for facing this continuous fragmentation within societies is rebuilding the “Concept of the State” through restructuring a national identity that face the religious, ethnical, tribal, and geographical identities. Fortifying the sense of nation, restoring the state of law and saving pluralism are the only diagnosis to the problem of sectarianism. At the same time, there should be some serious work on the cultural performance of people by raising their awareness and invest more in the social consciousness. This should be conducted through a clear strategy inspired by the need of having an enlightening movement that leads to a cultural revolution. The aim of this Cultural Revolution should be giving people the chance to practice different models of thinking and lifestyle, pushing them to think in a wider prospective so their cultural performance and way of thinking become compatible with the coming challenges that the world is facing with the concept of “Global Citizen.” Otherwise, Limitations on the faculty of mind would lead simply to more fragmentation, more conflicts and less opportunity of peaceful coexistence. 

Applying an effective process to face sectarianism does not seem to be easy, but if there is a serious political willingness to do a change, then it is the time to seize any possible opportunity. The first step should focus on building thought movements, as this mission is mostly the work of “Elite minds”. These intellectual movements would put the bases to move to the successive phase of thoughts marketing and transform ideas to concrete actions.  Moreover, the most important thing in this phase is to extricate people from the intimidation that many powerful radical groups are practicing on them.  Menacing people of the “Inferno” is something psychological that represents the incapacity of those groups to deal with changes. Therefore, governments should believe that any change would provoke resistance. Consequently, this should not block the process of change, at least, if there is a real conviction to do changes.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - April 4, 2016

Follow the money

Al Sarraj

Al Serraj nuovo Premier di unità nazionale libica ha capito subito che per gestire pienamente la transizione verso politiche condivise tra tutte le fazioni presenti deve entrare immediatamente in possesso del patrimonio di Gheddafi congelato in asset esteri dalle sanzioni Onu del 2011, sbloccando, inoltre, le leve finanziarie legate allo sfruttamento del petrolio e del gas.

“Segui i soldi” è oggi l’imperativo assoluto del Premier libico e la Coalizione internazionale è pronta a togliere le sanzioni per permettere a Serraj di diventare l’unico ufficiale pagatore ed il vero datore di lavoro riportando il paese alla normalità con gli stipendi istituzionali regolarmente pagati. La Libyan Investment Authority ( LIA ) con i suoi 85 miliardi di dollari di patrimonio, la National Oil Company ( NOC ) e la Banca centrale rappresentano il tesoro del vecchio Dittatore ed ora possono entrare nella disponibilità del nuovo corso libico per dare la stabilità ad un paese ancora diviso e non pacificato. La battaglia da vincere in questa fase è tutta economica e non militare ripristinato il circolo di denaro che determina il Pil libico anche gli altri contendenti Khalifa Ghwen, Nouri Abu Sahimin e Aguila Saleh troveranno la giusta collocazione nelle future dinamiche di gestione libiche.

Sul fronte terroristico la situazione è di stallo il califfato ha provato senza successo a prendere possesso  di alcuni terminali petroliferi per finanziarsi attraverso il contrabbando di greggio con Tunisia e Malta ma questo tipo di traffico risulta oggi estremamente difficile per i frequenti controlli delle forze militari occidentali. La partita, quindi, anche sul fronte Isis si gioca esclusivamente sul piano finanziario, la progressiva riduzione delle risorse economiche porterà ad un graduale arretramento dei terroristi sul territorio libico. La guerra sarà vinta dalla finanza, tutte le fazioni in lotta sono ,infatti, disposte ad andare verso la pacificazione se avranno un favorevole accordo economico

 

© RIPRODUZIONE RISERVATA

 
 
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Politics Author: - April 4, 2016

Follow the money

Al Sarraj

Al Serraj nuovo Premier di unità nazionale libica ha capito subito che per gestire pienamente la transizione verso politiche condivise tra tutte le fazioni presenti deve entrare immediatamente in possesso del patrimonio di Gheddafi congelato in asset esteri dalle sanzioni Onu del 2011, sbloccando, inoltre, le leve finanziarie legate allo sfruttamento del petrolio e del gas.

“Segui i soldi” è oggi l’imperativo assoluto del Premier libico e la Coalizione internazionale è pronta a togliere le sanzioni per permettere a Serraj di diventare l’unico ufficiale pagatore ed il vero datore di lavoro riportando il paese alla normalità con gli stipendi istituzionali regolarmente pagati. La Libyan Investment Authority ( LIA ) con i suoi 85 miliardi di dollari di patrimonio, la National Oil Company ( NOC ) e la Banca centrale rappresentano il tesoro del vecchio Dittatore ed ora possono entrare nella disponibilità del nuovo corso libico per dare la stabilità ad un paese ancora diviso e non pacificato. La battaglia da vincere in questa fase è tutta economica e non militare ripristinato il circolo di denaro che determina il Pil libico anche gli altri contendenti Khalifa Ghwen, Nouri Abu Sahimin e Aguila Saleh troveranno la giusta collocazione nelle future dinamiche di gestione libiche.

Sul fronte terroristico la situazione è di stallo il califfato ha provato senza successo a prendere possesso  di alcuni terminali petroliferi per finanziarsi attraverso il contrabbando di greggio con Tunisia e Malta ma questo tipo di traffico risulta oggi estremamente difficile per i frequenti controlli delle forze militari occidentali. La partita, quindi, anche sul fronte Isis si gioca esclusivamente sul piano finanziario, la progressiva riduzione delle risorse economiche porterà ad un graduale arretramento dei terroristi sul territorio libico. La guerra sarà vinta dalla finanza, tutte le fazioni in lotta sono ,infatti, disposte ad andare verso la pacificazione se avranno un favorevole accordo economico

 

© RIPRODUZIONE RISERVATA

 
 
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Politics Author: - April 3, 2016

The new phase of fighting terrorism

Fighting terrorism is taking a new dimension making of this war an open war and making of all elements of life a potential target. This new open confrontation means that security measurements should go through a restructuring phase, not just on the level of technics but also on the whole concept of security, approach, goal, protagonists and antagonists.

The new style of terrorism is targeting the civil life everywhere, is putting more pressure on all life details, from traveling in public transportations to have some normal cultural activities like attending concerts etc. This simply means that the major target of the new terrorism is making life of people more complicated. At the same time this strategy proves to be so efficient in draining the resources of security systems making of its personnel more and more exhausted. Therefore, time element might be playing in favor of the terrorist doctrine.

Big part of the new terrorist approach is based also on a new style of confrontation “individual Vs security system” which means that a single individual might be able to distract a whole security system, which makes the battle against terrorism today a very hard mission. Therefore,  it is important to adopt a strategy that can involve normal citizens, making of them effective protagonist in facing the new trends of terrorism on level of awareness and collaboration, this should be done under the process of building information-sharing partnerships, which will definitely help in having a full control over the situation as it is impossible for any security system to control all aspects of civic life. Moreover, this new system “Police citizen” can highly protecting critical infrastructure and civic places from attacks.

 Although terrorist challenges seem to be global, yet there is a big difference in the style of challenges that different countries are facing. Risks that Arab Countries are facing are somehow different from many of the risks that EU countries are facing; therefore, the approach should not be always the same. It is important also to think individually of an effective approach to face the risks.

EU internal security challenges come from very limited sources of danger, yet it can be so harmful. While many Arab countries are considered a source of breeding for radical ideologies so it would be illogic to deal with the source of problem in EU the way it should be seen in some Arab countries. However recently the EU fighters have contributed in enhancing the level of terrorist tactics from media campaigns, psychological war, and even style of terrorist operations inside the cities. Still, the problem in the EU is not as grave as it is in countries that considered a place where terrorist doctrines are going through phases of serious evolution.

Collaboration and cooperative security are highly important to face the terrorist risks, still, each country should focus on passing its own test and making of its model a successful model to be exported instead of just focusing on slogans of cooperation.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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