Monthly Archives: May 2016

Politics Author: - May 30, 2016

Toward the Jordanian Renaissance

The 25th of  May 2016, Jordan celebrated it’s 70th Independence anniversary. From all sides, this is an important event for a country that faced many political and economic hardships. A simple look at the map of the Middle East shows also that Jordan presents an important model of stability compared with other countries that face serious challenges. However, in evaluating the level of progress and development, it is always imperative for decision makers not to fall in the trap of  such comparison, by  putting bad situations thorough which many countries are passing along with the situations in their country to convince themselves that things are on the right track. Changing is a continuous process,, and development is a progressive issue that people should always seek to imitate the successful models.

Many are the challenges that Jordan faces today, internally and externally. Locally, Jordan should focus more on building and implementing an effective de radicalization strategy. Focusing on making some concrete changes on the socio-economic situation of the rural zones, such as micro-economic projects that can make people feel productive by having better chances to participate in building their future.  This might be done by a wide national strategy that aims at achieving a real change in the socio-economic system which is capable of putting an end to the economic dependency on the state it self. Such procedure can seriously prevent any possible scenario of future uprisings by the frustrated, and unemployed youth. The Independence Day should be the motive to make decision makers in Jordan starts an evaluation process to revise the mistakes of the past and plan for a progressive future based on enlightenment and positive cultural reform.

From a regional point of view, It was really disappointing to see Amman losing a very important chance to be the cultural hub of Arab world, as the so called Arab spring, has made the Arab historical and cultural hub , Damascus, Beirut, Cairo and Baghdad, Jordan should have developed a plan that makes the Jordanian Capital “Amman” the place where culture evolves and develops.

The Jordanian Renaissance should be the target for the coming phase; the enlightenment movement should include all aspects of life; it should be a cultural movement that includes Art, Education, and above all the consolidate the concepts of pluralism, respect of diversity and rule of law. By doing this, then Jordan can start its real Renaissance and play a major role in re building the cultural scene of this region.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - May 30, 2016

من يرث الخلافة؟

مع تصاعد الاستعدادات الدولية للتعاطي مع معركة اجتثاث داعش من معاقلها الاساسية في الرقة و الموصل تصر الولايات المتحدة على التفرد في ادارة هذه المعركة و تجيير اي انتصار قادم لنفسها، و هذا بلاشك احد اهم الاهداف التي تسعى الادارة الامريكية لتحقيقها مع نهاية عهد الرئيس أوباما و اقتراب خروجه من البيت الابيض.

لكن يبقى السؤال الابرز هل اجتثاث داعش من معاقلها يعني نهاية التنظيم؟ و هل المجتمع الدولي معني بانهاء داعش او انهاء حالة التفريخ المستمر للتنظيمات و الخلايا الارهابية؟

الحقيقة ان كافة المعطيات تشير ان اي معركة قادمة مع داعش قد تكون قادرة على انهاء الوجود الهيكلي للتنظيم لكنها بلاشك قد تنقل الجميع الى مرحلة أصعب في المواجهة مع تنظيمات جديدة مما يمكن الاصطلاح على تعرفته ب “تنظيم داعش ٢”.

 ان اهم ما يجب التوقف عنده اليوم في اطار مواجهة التنظيمات الارهابية هو نقطة اعلان الخلافة من قبل تنظيم داعش و التي أوصلت المواجهة مع كافة التنظيمات  الى نقطة لا يمكن العودة عنها مستقبلا حتى في حال ولادة اي تنظيم جديد. فاي تنظيم قادم سيجد نفسه في مقام الوريث للخلافة و بالتالي فان التحديات الامنية القادمة  في حال زوال او بقاء داعش تبقى تحديات ذات طابع كوني و تهديدات تطال كافة الاماكن و مفاصل الحياة دون استثناء، لا بل ان اي ولادة لاي تنظيم جديد قد تسجل انطلاق مرحلة جديدة من التوحش و محاولات التفوق في أشكال الترهيب و الرعب على ما قام به تنظيم داعش الى الان.  

ان اعلان الخلافة من قبل داعش كان اقرب في صورته الى الاعلان عن معركة “ارمجدون” اي معركة المواجهة النهائية التي تسكن صورتها و تخيلاتها في مخيلة الكثيرين من معركة الشام  و مرج دابق، الى فتح القسطنطينية و روما. لهذا فان استراتيجية اعلان الخلافة عملت على تحويل الكثيرين الى ادوات يتم استخدامها مباشرة او توظيفها عن بعد لخدمة داعش من المنتمين الى الجماعات الارهابية، و  كثير من المتشددين و حتى اولئك الذين يعانون من مشاكل اقتصادية، اجتماعية، سياسية و حتى نفسية  كل اولئك تم تحويلهم الى قنابل موقوته قابلة للانفجار في كل مكان في اطار المعركة النهائية، معركة  انتصار الخلافة.

ان استراتيجية اعلان الخلافة من قبل داعش فتحت باب “الحجيج للتنظيم” ووضعت كذلك الانظمة التي تصر على ترسيخ وجودها عبر بوابة الشرعية الدينية في أزمة وجودية عنوانها ” الحفاظ على الشرعية” من زاوية الصراع على من يمثل الاسلام مما جعل المعركة الفكرية التي تقودها كثير من الانظمة هي معركة الصراع على الماضي و السيطرة على الموروث الديني.

المعركة اليوم هي معركة تجديد و تغيير، معركة ثقافية و قيمية، و ان اصرار الكثيرين على التعامل معها من باب التوظيف السياسي يعني باختصار ان لا حلول حقيقية ستقدم لمواجهة اسباب و روافد هذه الافكار مما يعني ان المرحلة القادمة هي مرحلة صراع جديد مع واجهة متطورة للتنظيمات الارهابية اي نسخة محدثة لداعش “داعش ٢”.

د.عامر السبايلة

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Politics Author: - May 23, 2016

Will Jordan pay the price for the Palestinian settlement?

Pessimism becomes the dominant sentiment when it comes to any possible future solution for the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians. The “Two-State solution” seems to fade away, while on a practical level, the Palestinian issue is not anymore the core of attention in the Middle East. However, all the other crisis in the region seem to be interconnected with the Palestinian issue, especially in their consequences such as refugees, borders, security and normalization of ties with Israel.

     

From a strategic point of view, the most affected  country from the Palestinian issue is Jordan. Historically Jordan has paid the highest price of the consequences of the pending Palestinian crisis on all levels. Still, Jordan seems to face a new old challenge regarding the final solution of the pending peace process. Many analysts believe that the only valid resolution is the so-called “Jordanian option”; perhaps, with some modifications to the old plan of the US former President Ronald Reagan who suggested in 1988 that  a “Self-government by the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza would be in association with Jordan and not a separate state.”

       

Recently, many believe that it is really difficult to achieve a political solution for the Palestinian issue, nevertheless; a kind of practical solution would pass smoothly, particularly if these procedures are meant to facilitate the life of Palestinians specially in three major issues: borders, liberty of movement and security; a dimension where Jordan seems to be an essential part of such facilitation process.

     

Most of the proposals trying to revive the peace process are skipping the right of return for refugees, and recently they include the recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. Thus basically, such proposals show that any solution would be on the behalf of the countries that should settle the refugees or even expect to have more of them.

  On the political side, the Palestinian scene seems to be deeply fragmented. Fatah movement is passing through one of its worst times; many polls expect Hamas to win over in the West bank in any coming election. At the same time, same polls believe that Hamas might lose in Gaza but not leaving it, so the question in mind is what is the expected scenario also for Gaza? Mostly, will any radical movement appear on the scene? Or, would be also a kind of “Transfer” by Gaza’s people toward Jordan? 

     

Jordan should be ready to face the consequences of the failure in the peace process, and it should be cautious not to be the place where the negative impacts and the aftermath of the crisis appear. What Jordan needs today is a strong national strategy to face the coming risks that might threaten the country on all levels, politically and socially. The recognition of the Palestinian state is the first step that should be achieved before dealing with any kind of confederation.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - May 8, 2016

Scenarios in facing Daesh



Many experts, nowadays, attempt to investigate the various scenarios that ISIS might adopt in the coming future. The constricted situation in Syria and Iraq would push the organization to move en route for new spaces, i.e. Libya. Libya, one of the most attracting places for ISIS today; Libya’s wide geographical space, its borders with African countries, its chaotic status , and the shores on the Mediterranean has pushed the terrorist group to think of initiating  a new base there. ISIS would seize various factors to impose its brutal authority in Libya such as: the circumstances of political chaos in the country, particularly when Libya is still governmentally instable,. Such acts should call for international support through the security council which still will take more time to be achieved.

On the other hand, the preparations for the battle of liberation of Mousql and Raqqa from Daesh are still going on; USA, apparently, persists to have the key role in these operations. Although many reports have confirmed the interference of chemical weapons (Mustard Gas, Sarin) from Daesh’s side,  the expected reactions of the terrorist group are still hard to be predicted. This would make the US or any coalition very cautious regarding any direct military intervention. Reversely, losing the “Caliphate” main base means the fall of the so called “Islamic state”, yet the concept of the caliphate will not fall easily.  This means that the risk of having a new versions of Daesh claiming to be the caliphate’s representative will always be there.

The attack on Daesh in its base might provoke various reactions, above all, the attempt by the terrorist group to give a global dimension to its reactions. Most of the security reports believe that the phase that Daesh anticipates Al Raqqa and Mosul battles will seek to widen the battle by targeting different places to create a status of panic and disorder to the global security. The “surprise strategy” is the one expected to be adopted by Daesh, especially that many reports have highlighted many of the new tactics of the terrorist group, mainly the recruitment of “kids” and women to conduct operation.

Many are shocked by the various scenarios that Daesh might conduct. The terrorist group will struggle to conduct extremely brutal operations that will make up the loss of any territory, and at the same time prove that Daesh was not affected by any loss. The new confrontation that Daesh seeks to achieve will be a global one, where simply every country might be subjected to attacks. Therefore, “lone actors” maybe the main protagonists in any coming confrontation, as the recent events proved that one individual terrorist can drain the resources of many security services in any country while they are searching for him. What is needed today is avoid falling in the trap of terrorist threat and keep away from reacting wrongly to these risks.  The coming challenges might be untraditional ones; yet facing these risks should push decision makers not only to focus merely on security, but also to invest excessively in human building. Despite the fact that many security experts believe that the coming phase would witness some attacks in different countries, the major issue to do is to focus on how to eliminate the roots of terrorism along with taking precautions against the terrorist risks. In fact, if the continuous breeding of these groups continues, brutality and violence would increase, as the issue of declaration of the Caliphate by Daesh make many fanatics see the current battle as “Armageddon” or the final battle.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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