Monthly Archives: January 2017

Jordan’s security and political cooperation with Russia

Ever since the first day of the double “Russian-Chinese” veto on Syria in 2012, it has been palpable that Moscow’s intervention in the Syrian crisis was not temporarily. However, for some countries, the mistake was to view this involvement as a temporary intervention, where many people relied on a methodology of comparing previous Russian (and formerly USSR) policies in the region to apply it on the current events and reach the conclusion of Russia’s inability in imposing itself and its continued presence in the region.

Actually any farsighted reading clearly indicates that Syria is a major turning point in the nature of the international dealing with crisis and that it will have a major role in the re-drafting of international standpoints.

As for the Jordanian- Russian relationship, Jordan is currently compelled to communicate with Moscow. Although this step has been previously classified as a “political choice” today it has become an inevitable necessity. This visit has to overcome any previous positions and push Jordan to a point where the visits are transformed into practical steps in reality.

The Jordanian borders might be facing an impending confrontation resulting from the coming battles to the southern Syrian borders, which means that Jordan should look for military and security collaboration and communication with the Syrian side, as Jordan should be ready to face the consequences resulting from the southern Syrian battles or the battle to liberate Raqqa.   

King Abdullah’s visit to Moscow is not the first but the timing of this visit could make it the most fundamental. Jordan is compelled to contemplate its political choices and rebuild its alliances prioritizing the Jordanian national interest.

Today, the phase of rebuilding alliances and considering diversifying the choices is no longer prohibited. Actually, it is becoming an urgent need that cannot be overlooked or even ignored. For today, Moscow is the most conspicuous player in the fight against terrorism in the region. It is also the entryway to the regional settlement point, as well as the fact that it is becoming heavily involved in the peace process. This means that Moscow has become a compulsory access point for Jordan on both security and political scales.

Re-adapting the Jordanian position regarding the Syrian crisis should not be limited to slogans but to action. Jordan should find its way out of the gray zone, taking clear positions to re engage with the Syrian government. This was also the message sent by the chairman of Jordan joint chiefs-of-staff Mahmoud Freihat in his last BBC interview when he said that Jordan cannot open Nassib’s borders with Syria unless it goes back under the Syrian government control.


Changing Jordanian politics means that Jordan is obliged to adopt new policies and embrace a contemporary vision, which means that Jordan is forced to make drastic changes in the form and nature of dealing with the regional crisis.

Jordan’s visit to Moscow may bear many significant implications in its symbolism, but it cannot be transformed into progressive outcomes if factual steps do not accompany these advances on the ground that really declares the commencement of a new phase.

Dealing with Moscow is no longer an option, but has become a reality that cannot be overlooked or even ignored for all Middle Eastern countries.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

الاردن و روسيا: شراكة اجبارية في البعدين الامني و السياسي

* التعاطي مع موسكو لم يعد خياراً بل اصبح واقعاً لا يمكن اغفاله بالنسبة لكافة دول الشرق الاوسط.

* السياسة الامريكية وضعت حلفاء واشنطن في موقف لا يحسدون عليه مما يجعل اطراف المحور الامريكي مضطرين للبحث عن خيارات و تحالفات جديدة مبنية على مصالح استراتيجية جديدة.

منذ اليوم الاول للفيتو المزدوج “الروسي الصيني” بشأن سوريا في العام ٢٠١٢   واضحاً ان دخول موسكو على خط الازمة السورية لم يكن دخولاً عبثياً او مؤقتاً.

بالنسبة لبعض الدول، كان من الطبيعي النظر الى هذا التدخل على انه تدخل مؤقت، حيث اعتمد الكثيرون على منهجية مقارنة سياسات روسيا او الاتحاد السوفياتي السابقة في المنطقة لاسقاطها على الحاضر و الوصول الى استنتاج مفاده ان روسيا غير قادرة على فرض نفسها و استمرار تواجدها في المنطقة. لا بل ان جلسات متعددة  شارك فيها سياسيون و عسكريون شهدت تكراراً لواحدة من النظريات الاكثر سطحية، مفادها ان روسيا تحاول رفع سعر تعويضاتها للتخلي عن سوريا.

الحقيقة ان اي قراءة بعيدة النظر تشير بوضوح ان سوريا هي نقطة التحول الرئيسي في طبيعة التعاطي الدولي مع هذه الازمة و التي سيكون لها الدور الاكبر في اعادة صياغة المواقف الدولية.

لسنا هنا في معرض السرد التفصيلي لمحطات الازمة السورية و انعكاساتها، لكن لابد من الاشارة ان الدخول الروسي الى سوريا عبر محطتين، الاولى عبرالبوابة الدبلوماسية في رعاية اتفاق تسليم الاسلحة الكيماوية،اما الثانية فهي محطة الدخول العسكري المباشر.

مع بداية المرحلة الثانية كان من الطبيعي ان تجد موسكو نفسها منخرطة في كافة ملفات المنطقة من مكافحة الارهاب الى عملية السلام.

 اما بالنسبة للعلاقة الاردنية الروسية، فالاردن يجد نفسه مضطراً اليوم للتواصل مع موسكو، و ان كانت هذه الخطوة تصنف سابقاً على انها “خيار سياسي” الا انها اليوم اصبحت ضرورة لا مفر عنها. لكن لابد لهذه الزيارة ان تتجاوز عقبات الزيارات السابقة و تتنقل بالاردن الى نقطة ترجمة الزيارة الى خطوات عملية على الارض.

فالحدود الاردنية قد تكون على موعد مع مواجهة قادمة ناتجة عن انتقال المعارك الى جبهة سوريا الجنوبية الامر الذي يعني ان الاردن معني بالتنسيق و التواصل العسكري الامني مع الداخل السوري و الاستعداد كذلك لمواجهة التداعيات الناتجة عن معركة الجنوب السوري او معركة تحرير الرقة.

زيارة الملك عبدالله الى موسكو هي ليست الزيارة الاولى لكن يمكن ان تكون الاهم بالنسبة للتوقيت. الاردن المضطر للتفكير في خياراته السياسية واعادة بناء  تحالفاته و هو معني اليوم بالتعاطي مع التحولات الاخيرة التي طرأت  على السياسة الدولية من باب تغليب المصلحة الاردنية على اي شيء آخر.

مرحلة اعادة صياغة التحالفات و التفكير بتنويع الخيارات لم تعد اليوم مسألة يحظر التفكير بها -وفقاً لذهنية كثير من الساسة الاردنيين المتمركزين في مراكز صنع القرار- بل اصبحت حاجة ملحة لا يمكن اغفالها. فموسكو اليوم هي اللاعب الابرز في مكافحة الارهاب في المنطقة و هي اليوم بوابة العبور الى نقطة التسوية الاقليمية واصبحت منخرطة بشكل كبير في ملف عملية السلام، مما يعني ان موسكو باتت ممراً اجبارياً للاردن على الصعيدين الامني و السياسي.

اعادة التكيف مع مسارات الحل في سوريا و استيعاب التغير الذي طرأ على سياسات كافة الدول يجب ان يدفع الاردن اليوم للبحث عن مخرج حقيقي و اللحاق بركب التحولات التي بدأت تعيد ترتيب شكل المنطقة.

التغيير في السياسة الاردنية يعني ان الاردن مضطر لانتهاج سياسة جديدة و تبني رؤية حديثة مما يعني ان الاردن مضطر لاجراء تغييرات جذرية في شكل و طبيعة تعاطيه مع ملفات ازمات المنطقة.

الزيارة الاردنية لموسكو قد تحمل في رمزيتها معاني و مضامين كبيرة الا انها لا يمكن ان تتحول الي نتائج ايجابية ان لم ترافق هذه التحركات خطوات حقيقية على الارض تعلن بدء مرحلة جديدة، عندها يمكن التفكير بان الاردن بدأ فعلياً مرحلة الانتقال الفعلي لمرحلة تنويع الخيارات. 

د.عامر السبايلة

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

Reshuffling governments a sign of political instability

Jordan is well known for changes and reshuffles at the highest levels of government. While the previous Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour held office for more than three years, he had over 70 ministers on his team during that time. The current Prime Minister Hani Al-Mulki is continuing that legacy of instability announcing his second reshuffle after less than seven months in office.

Many believe that the main challenge for Jordan is economic reforms to address the serious issues in the economy, and very little has been achieved on this. Jordan also faces very serious problems with radicalization, general security and coordination of the bureaucracy. Jordan also faces the challenge of restoring relations with neighboring countries including Syria and Iraq, as well as reconnecting with regional players such as Iran and Turkey. Without a clear strategy and professional operators to implement, these issues will never be addressed.

The failure to deliver concrete progress in addressing the economy or deradicalization is in part driven by the lack of stability in key ministries such as the Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Higher Education and the Ministry of Youth. Without stability or any progress in tackling the key issues, this government is likely to be another that treads water and achieves nothing.

Many observers believe that Mulki, much like many of his predecessors, is not a leader or a team player. Any reshuffle must be based on national interests with a strategic vision to address the key issues that are facing the country.

Whatever the real reasons behind the reshuffle, this kind of power politics will always have a negative impact on both citizens and state. It adds tension to the already difficult political climate and gives the impression that government is completely outdated and unable to address the concerns of the Jordanian public.

What Jordan needs today is a government that can bring tangible changes to the lives of the people at all levels of service delivery, economic reform and to communicate the policies and achievements. The risks of such a political attitude is the disillusionment of Jordanians who are more likely to consider not only that change is impossible but also that attempts to change are futile.

The most serious problem is the continuous erosion of confidence that current or future governments are capable of addressing internal or regional challenges.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem that this reshuffle has changed anything as far as government policy is concerned. It is unlikely to last if the economic situation does not change and the impacts of regional terrorism continue to escalate. The most likely outcome is ongoing change and instability with no real outcomes for the people or the country.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Are we ready for the new waves of Terrorism?

New regional waves of terrorism are targeting different countries in the region, mostly Turkey. After the call of the leader of ISIS ‘Al Baghdadi’ to attack Turkey, it is obvious that Turkey is becoming the chief target of the terrorist organization. The night club operation in Turkey represents new challenges in encountering terrorism; the ability of the terrorist to eliminate the security personnel even the police;  carry-out the operation, and escape the scene in a new style shows that this operation can be viewed as an “intelligence operation”. This recent methodology annotates an escalation in the level of sophistication of ISIS’s “traditional operations” but it also shows that the organization is penetrating the security system and social textile of Turkey; as it would be impossible for any terrorist to execute such an operation, escape the scene and hide within the same country without back-up and support from local protagonists.

Nonetheless, it is important to notice that the regression of ISIS’s organization in Syria and Iraq, along with the recent shifts following the battle of Aleppo causes not just Turkey, but also Jordan to face series of challenges and dangers.

First, the relocation of fighters from one front to other fronts intensifies the possibilities of individual operations and increases the organization’s desire to create new hot spots.

Second, Jordan’s most critical challenge is the rout of the battles in Syria after Aleppo, in which its compass might point towards the Syrian Southern border, placing increasing pressure on the Jordanian border and raising the danger ratio of repeated attacks. In this case, repeated attempts that aim at striking the national security and creating an atmosphere of internal disputes will take place; the organization’s subjects seek to exploit and employ it to the best of their interests.

Third, one of the prominent dangers of the next phase is characterized by the continuous regeneration of fighter cells and the activation of dormant cells that have been operating mutely during the past years, and have been able to build networks of allies in the areas in which they are located.

Fourth, the arrival of these cells to the “individual working” phase; they will be isolated due to the fall of the central order of the organization. These cells might be seeking to apply individual actions that depend on the surprise element, and usually aim at causing the most damage with minimal costs. This means uncomplicated operations such as; shooting at a security officer, or striking a crowded area of civilians using primitive techniques.

The increasing pressure on the fighters in Syria, and the Turkish borders being closed after Erdogan’s political shift might push the fighters into targeting new areas and finding exit routes from which they can use in order to escape this state of pressure.

Thus, the challenges Jordan is facing are enormous. The alteration from having to deal with direct threats means that Jordan has moved into the open and direct confrontation stage with these organizations. That is why Jordan has to change the framework and the system in which it deals with these organizations. The graphic organizer of recent assaults that targeted Jordan indicates obvious increase in the configuration of the operations, their method and objectives but still the target, so far, is the security system not the civilians. This means that they should be dealt with in a strictly firm manner and in a method that foresees the coming confrontations in order to avoid any further dangerous and aggressive future threats. 

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

Advanced ISIS Strategy Looming New Threats



The remarkable shift in the method of the terrorist operation carried-out by ISIS in Istanbul, especially from the technical and tactical perspective, indicates ISIS’s shift in adopting a more complicated advanced approach, which could be classified as one of the intelligence operation in the form and the implementation process; particularly, in the assailant’s ability to carry – out the attack during vital timing: “New Year’s Eve celebrations” in spite of the warnings that had been released and the security measures that had been assumed in order to confront such danger. The most dangerous aspect, which marks an unprecedented occurrence, is that the attacker did not pursue a previous approach in his attack like blasting himself, or remaining on sight fighting until killed. On the contrary, he was able to flee the scene and go into hiding to this day.     
This data presented opens the door wide open for questions, specifically regarding the security challenges facing and will face Turkey, as well as other countries in the future. Particularly since the hypothesis of implementing an operation of this magnitude, in a well-known tourist attraction despite taking all security measures, indicates a highly penetrative ability of both security and community system. The ability of a person to carry-out such an operation is a sign that significantly indicates the presence of catalysts and internal incubators working to facilitate all phases of the operation: access, mission accomplished by shooting down the target, withdrawal and disappearance.      

The strike facing Turkey today occurs at a time when Turkey is reformulating its political positions; embarking on an era of transformations that initially started to appear by ending the battle of Aleppo and moving into the truce phase in Syria, and Turkey’s role in bringing many parties to the negotiation table.   

The successive security strikes also occur at a time when Turkey’s security system is going through a restructuring phase, after the futile military coup attempt, intensifying the complexity of Turkey’s mission and its ability to counter terrorism; apart from the political challenges and negative climates formed by the Turkish policy in recent years, which resulted in increased number of enemies and fewer friends and allies.

Turkey has been trying very hard to recover from the dearth of tourism that started with the Russian fighter Jet crash and the absence of Russian tourist presence, as well as the destructive fallouts due to a number of terrorist attacks targeting European tourists, and then the bombing of Istanbul’s airport. All these were situations reinforcing a hiatus in tourism, and then came the latest attacks on Istanbul as a real blow to the Turkish economy and tourism, which have been drained dramatically lately. These developments should affect large Turkish strategic projects as well, especially in the transportation sector and airports’ projects that have been seeking to turn Turkey into the largest hub in Europe. The issue of lack of security that is being rooted now will create a new reality of isolation difficult to overcome in the future; the security that has been being built for many long years could be lost in a matter of few months, especially when civilians are the main targets of terrorist attacks; not just the security forces.

The security reading regarding the attack on Istanbul indicates a remarkable shift in the nature of the operations implemented by the organization of ISIS, which still rotates around similar traditional operations, but that incorporates far more complicated planning and technical dimension. Accordingly, the world might be facing more intricate and sophisticated operations in the imminent future.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

قراءة في عملية اسطنبول: نهج داعشي جديد و تهديدات جديدة قادمة

التحول اللافت في شكل العملية الارهابية التي نفذها داعش في اسطنبول خصوصاً من الجانب التقني و التكتيتي يشير الى انتقال تنظيم داعش لتبني اسلوب متقدم أكثر تعقيدا و يمكن تصنيفها على انها احدى نماذج العمليات الاستخبارية في شكل و اداء العملية، خصوصاً في قدرة منفذ العملية على تنفيذ العملية في توقيت مهم “احتفالية راس السنة” بالرغم من التحذيرات التي تم اطلاقها و من الاجراءات الامنية التي تم اتخاذها لمواجهة هذا الخطر. اما النقطة الاخطر و التي تشكل سابقة جديدة هي ان منفذ العملية لم ينتهج نهجاً سابقاً كتفجير نفسه او القتال في المكان حتى تتم تصفيته بل استطاع الانسحاب و التواري عن الانظار الى اليوم.

هذه المعطيات تفتح باب الاسئلة على مصراعيه، بالتحديد حول التحديات الامنية التي تواجه و ستواجه تركيا و دول أخرى مستقبلاً. خصوصاً ان فرضية تنفيذ عملية بهذا الحجم في مكان سياحي معروف بالرغم من اتخاذ كافة الاجراءات الامنية يشير الى قدرة اختراق عالية سواء للمنظومة الامنية او المجتمعية. ان قدرة شخص على تنفيذ مثل هذه العملية لابد ان تشير الى وجود عوامل مساعدة و حواضن داخلية تعمل على تسهيل كافة مراحل العملية: الوصول و تنفيذ المهمة باسقاط الهدف و الانسحاب و الاختفاء.

الضربة التي توجه الى تركيا اليوم تأتي في وقت تعيد تركيا فيه صياغة مواقفها السياسية و تبدأ معه عهداً من التحولات ظهرت بوادرها بانهاء معركة حلب و الانتقال الى مرحلة الهدنة في سوريا و الدور التركي عن جلب كافة الفصائل الى طاولة الحوار.

الضربات الامنية المتوالية تأتي أيضاً في فترة تمر فيها المنظومة الامنية التركية بمرحلة اعادة الصياغة و الترتيب بعد عملية الانقلاب الفاشل و التي تزيد من مهمة و قدرة مواجهة الارهاب صعوبةً و تعقيداً، عداك عن الصراع السياسي و المناخات السلبية التي شكلتها السياسة التركية في السنوات الاخيرة بحيث زاد عدد الاعداء و قل عدد الاصدقاء و الحلفاء.

تركيا التي كانت تحاول جاهدة ان تتعافى من مسألة انقطاع السياحة التي بدأت مع سقوط الطائرة الروسية و انقطاع الوجود السياحي الروسي، و النتائج السلبية لعدد من الهجمات الارهابية التي استهدفت سياحاً اوروبيين و من ثم تفجير مطار اسطنبول، كلها محطات عززت مسألة انقطاع السياحة لتأتي هجمات اسطنبول الاخيرة لتوجه ضربة حقيقية للسياحة و الاقتصاد التركي المستنزف مؤخراً بشكل كبير. هذه التطورات لابد ان تؤثر ايضاً على مشاريع استراتيجية تركية كبيرة خصوصاً في قطاع المواصلات و المطارات و التي كانت تسعى لتحويل تركيا الى نقطة الجذب الاكبر في اوروبا ذلك ان مسألة غياب الامن التي يتم تجذيرها الان ستخلق واقع جديد من العزلة يصعب تجاوزها مستقبلاً، فالامن الذي يتم بناءه عبر سنين طويلة يمكن خسارته في شهور قليلة خصوصاً عندما يتحول المدنيون -و ليس فقط الاجهزة الامنية- الى الهدف الرئيسي للعمليات الارهابية.

القراءة الامنية لعملية اسطنبول تشير الى تحول لافت في طبيعة العمليات التي ينفذها تنظيم داعش و التي مازالت تدور في فلك العمليات التقليدية لكن ببعد تقني اكثر تعقيداً و تخطيطاً، مما يعني ان العالم قد يكون على موعد مع عمليات اكثر تعقيداً و تطوراً في الايام القادمة.   

د.عامر السبايلة

amersabaileh@yahoo.com