The risk of a return of Daesh is becoming more credible, especially with the organisation emerging strongly in various locations recently. The war in Gaza will only create more opportunities for them to grow and spread. The atmosphere of anger, frustration and instability could provide a favourable environment for the terrorist organisation to operate and carry out operations against Western targets. This makes it even more important for countries to remain vigilant and take necessary measures to prevent it.
The recent activities of Daesh in Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan, along with the emergence of new organisations in other areas, indicate a concerning trend. The ongoing situation in Gaza, with its catastrophic consequences and international involvement can potentially impact counterterrorism efforts. This provides an opportunity for Daesh and similar terrorist groups to reorganise and exploit the situation to spread hatred and violence, both regionally and globally. It is crucial for the international community to address this threat and work towards promoting peace and stability.
The timing of the war in Gaza, the ongoing violence and the prolonged catastrophe creates a favourable environment for Daesh to make a strong comeback. The chaos and distraction caused by the conflict could allow them to operate with less pressure and take advantage of security lapses or mistakes as Gaza distracts the security services across the region and more broadly. It is crucial for the international community to address this situation and prevent Daesh from expanding its activities.
Daesh is likely to focus on two levels. First, expanding its activities and presence in various geographic areas such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria and Iraq, aiming to control more territories. Second, they will resort to lone wolf style attacks, taking advantage of the anger and frustration caused by the war in Gaza, particularly amongst Middle Eastern youth living in the West. This creates an environment conducive to promoting the idea of conflict with the West and targeting Western countries and targets, especially those supporting Israel. They may justify these actions as revenge for perceived opposition towards the situation in the Islamic and Arab world. This strategy aligns with the global exremist movement’s tactics and way of thinking. Therefore, it is important for security agencies to be prepared and proactive in countering these threats.
The risk of framing the situation in Gaza as a war between the West and Arab or Islamic countries could have severe consequences for global security. It may fuel waves of terrorism, justified by a sense of revenge, inequality and injustice. There should be a focus on the potential rise of terrorism in countries experiencing protests or increased anger amongst their citizens. Terrorist groups can exploit these sentiments to mobilise people against their governments or Western interests in their countries, portraying themselves as defenders against injustice. It is crucial to address these root causes and promote peace and understanding.
The risk of an increase in lone wolf terrorist attacks is a serious concern for security agencies, particularly in countries that have taken positions on the situation in Gaza. It is important for authorities to remain vigilant and take necessary measures to contain these risks and prevent such attacks to ensure the safety of their citizens.
The risk of inter-religious conflict that leads to long-term instability is a major concern for global security. It is crucial for everyone to understand these risks and not fall into the trap of perpetuating hate, anger and the desire to eliminate others. We must strive for understanding, peace and coexistence to prevent further escalation of inter-cultural conflicts.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
