The pressure on Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu from the Biden administration might lead the Israelis to adopt a more flexible approach in Gaza, especially on the humanitarian front. The Israeli government is likely to offer incentives on a humanitarian level, an unprecedented response because of the pressure exerted on them by the American administration over the past six months. However, despite this pressure, Israel remains resolute in its determination to eliminate threats emanating from all sides, including Syria and Lebanon.
While Israel is poised to shift its approach, achieving long-term security objectives, such as neutralising the sources of threats and preventing a recurrence of incidents like October 7, will necessitate ongoing operations.
So, Israel’s actions in the short term may focus on minimising humanitarian and civilian impacts while preparing to maintain control over the Egyptian border at Rafah.
This may include various approaches, such as increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza and relocating civilians from densely populated areas near Rafah to safer zones in Hamas-controlled territories. Additionally, Israel may intensify efforts to prevent smuggling through the tunnels at Rafah.
The mounting pressure on Israel could also prompt its security apparatus to undertake a new phase of targeted assassinations using swift military and intelligence operations to eliminate Hamas leaders both within and outside Gaza, particularly if it is confirmed that the Israeli hostages are no longer alive.
Israel appears to be strategically engaging on multiple fronts, including Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, as it seeks to minimise threats and secure its borders for the long term.
Collaborative efforts with the United States and potential compromises in Gaza may play a pivotal role in Israel’s plans for Lebanon, highlighting the complexity of the situation.
The American administration’s primary focus as it nears the end of its term may be achieving some kind of regional peace in the Middle East.
Partnering with prime minister Netanyahu to stabilise the situation in Gaza, recognition of a Palestinian state, and work towards broader peace initiatives could be key objectives.
Ending the conflict in Gaza and transitioning to rebuilding efforts could serve as a springboard for broader peace endeavours in the region.
Analytically, the American administration’s approach to regional conflicts has faced challenges, with limited progress thus far. Despite Netanyahu’s perceived unsuitability for the administration’s goals, he may be viewed as a necessary partner in advancing the peace process.
The administration’s urgency to end the Gaza conflict and pursue tangible rebuilding efforts signals its commitment to attempting regional peace before the end of its term.
Amidst these efforts, challenges persist, including uncertainties in regional dynamics and potential escalations in Iraq.
Quick solutions remain elusive in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. The shift in the administration’s approach towards Israel may present opportunities for progress but also carries risks of further instability if not managed effectively.
Attempting to oust Netanyahu through a vigorous campaign or any form of interventionist approach risks exacerbating tensions and further complicating the already delicate geopolitical landscape.
Such a strategy is unlikely to yield positive outcomes especially with all these fronts open and lack of any clear vision how to close it.
Moreover, the notion that removing Netanyahu from power could facilitate President Biden’s pursuit of peace may prove to be a miscalculation, as in the middle of a war, any substitute for Netanyahu could be seen by some as having the potential to compromise the security of Israel.
Even Benny Gantz who seems to be in a better position for the Biden administration’s agenda said during a press conference last week, “Victory will come step by step. We are on our way to it, and we will not stop.
We will enter Rafah. We will return to Khan Yunis. And we will operate in Gaza.”
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
