8/9/2024
The US administration continues to emphasise the possibility of success in negotiations to end the ongoing war in Gaza, a process that has dragged on for months without meaningful progress.
It has become increasingly apparent that the real driver behind these negotiations is the desire to secure a diplomatic achievement ahead of the upcoming US presidential elections.
Yet, the Biden administration finds itself entangled in a complex reality created by the Israeli government, both in Gaza and across other fronts that have flared up over the past few months.
At the heart of the stalled negotiations are disagreements over the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi Corridor, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is refusing to relinquish, citing security concerns.
Netanyahu argues that abandoning this strategic position would revive the threats Israel faced before October 7, particularly from tunnels and weapons smuggling.
This security rationale has bolstered his position, even with the US, which disagrees with his methods but aligns with his broader vision of maintaining security along these borders.
The situation took a turn this week when several hostages in Gaza, including US citizens, were killed.
The Biden administration, desperate to avoid further American casualties, is now signalling a possible direct deal with Hamas that bypasses the broader Gaza ceasefire talks.
This has raised eyebrows in Israel but offers Hamas no real solutions or concrete gains on the ground.
With negotiations stalling, Israel has expanded its military operations in the West Bank.
These efforts target the infrastructure of Palestinian refugee camps and displace their residents, enforcing a new reality that Israel expects everyone to eventually accept.
This Israeli action in the West Bank, alongside the ever-volatile Lebanese front, cannot be seen as merely a policy of the Netanyahu’s government.
Instead, it reflects a broader security doctrine that Israel adopted after October 7, a doctrine that transcends political factions and government shifts.
Israel’s strategy of opening and neutralising multiple fronts will likely remain unchanged, even if Netanyahu is no longer in power.
The current government’s approach to prolonging the crisis has proven effective, with numerous fronts open and no practical solutions in sight, particularly regarding Gaza.
On the regional level, the de-escalation with Iran and the containment of Hizbollah have allowed Israel to shift its focus toward the West Bank, a front that could have far-reaching implications for Palestinian security and regional stability.
As diplomatic pressure from the US increases, Israel is likely to adopt more tactical manoeuvres on both the military and security fronts.
In the coming months, the region could experience further escalations, particularly in the West Bank, reinforcing Israel’s strategy of prolonging the crisis.
This strategy ensures that the US remains focused on defending Israel against emerging threats rather than pursuing comprehensive diplomatic solutions.
Despite this, Israel continues to participate in US-led initiatives, maintaining an appearance of diplomatic flexibility. However, this engagement seems to serve as a facade for a more fundamental goal: Prolonging the crisis and achieving security objectives.
A return to Israel’s policy of targeted assassinations is a likely scenario in the coming phase.
The war climate provides Israel with a security cover that allows it to conduct such operations without facing significant backlash, a luxury that would be far more difficult to maintain if a ceasefire were reached or if the fronts were closed.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
