Author Archives: Amer Al Sabaileh

Politics Author: - June 5, 2017

Injustice may turn an outlaw into a ‘hero’

To win over radicalism, it is important not to forget that this battle is much deeper than a social media campaign or the promotion of certain rhetoric and narratives. It is also important to understand the psychology of these groups and how their leaders enjoy such widespread support.

In his book Black Flags “The Rise of Isis” Joby Warrick tackles the life of Al Zarqawi, the Jordanian terrorist who gained international notoriety and laid the foundations for ISIS. It is interesting to consider how these terrorists are viewed amongst different groups. Despite being a violent terrorist and an enemy of the state, many still see him as a hero.

Promoting the narrative that the state is an enemy of its own citizens fuels feelings of hate towards the state, its institutions and representatives. Al Zarqawi was seen as a strong leader amongst his followers, partly because of his strong positions against the states and its representatives, and was seen as a protector of his followers; “Despite his harsh manner, he won admirers because of his fearless defiance of prison authority.”

This arouses further inquiry around the underlying reasons for terrorists being seen as heroes. These groups enjoy impassioned solidarity amongst its members, as the group provides elements to their lives that general society has not. When states fail to uphold social justice and national identity, people can often seek these comforts elsewhere.

Fostering a sense of brotherhood can replace the failures of integration in society. These groups tap into feelings of exclusion, oppression, humiliation and the violation of human dignity. According to the book, Zarqawi appeared to be caring and a defender of his fellows, he presented himself as someone who stood for their rights and to protect their dignity. In one story, he appeared to fight for an ill man named Jahaline not just to receive the proper medication but also respect.

This extract is an illustrative example of the role that Zarqawi played for his followers: “One evening, while Sabha (the doctor) was visiting the cell, Jahaline suffered one of his occasional meltdowns, a screaming fit that usually required treatment with antipsychotic drugs. Sabha grabbed a syringe and was preparing to administer the shot when Zarqawi stepped forward to block him. Without a word, Zarqawi took a blanket from one of the beds and draped it over Jahaline’s lower body. He held the blanket in place with one hand, and with another tugged at the elastic waistband of the disabled man’s trousers, exposing him narrow crescent of skin. Then he motioned to the doctor. “Just make sure it’s in the right spot,” he commanded. When it was done and Jahaline was resting quietly, Sabha looked up to find Zarqawi watching him with a look of satisfaction.”

The point is that in our de-radicalization and anti terrorism strategies, we must consider how these groups work, on the psychology of the people involved. Being an outlaw has always had an attraction for certain people, and outlaw groups have for centuries leveraged the sense of protecting members from social injustice and failures of the state. Robin Hood, the hero that we all admire was in reality an outlaw. But in the story he is only an outlaw because of injustice in the system, so the people saw him as a hero fighting for their rights.

To be effective in de-radicalization, there should be also process of imposing justice, protecting human dignity, giving people the chance to live a better life and participate in building their future.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - May 28, 2017

What to expect after Trump’s visit to the Mideast

US President Trump’s first visit to the region could be the start of a new phase of relations between the US and some of the Gulf countries, and it will be very interesting to see which issues they engage on.

The Trump administration appears highly supportive of the Saudi position on dealing with Iran and its allies, such as Hezbollah, a position that is shared by Israel. This agreement could change the nature of the conversation around the Israel-Palestine peace process, and will almost definitely have an impact in Syria. America’s consideration of listing the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group is one to watch as an indicator over the coming months.

Such a repositioning of the US regional alliance will have its impact on Jordan, and we must be prepared for changes to the way we engage and the support we receive, and maintain a strong voice in the region and maintaining stability and security, both physical and economic.

Jordan also faces the challenge of shifting dynamics with the Gulf countries and maintaining engagement on common interests. Jordan did withdraw its Ambassador to Iran as a result of the consultation and escalation against KSA, which the Saudis were supportive of. However, there is no indication that we will see a renewal of the financial support grants established back in 2012.

The Kingdom has shifted its priorities and regional investment is falling down the list, with US engagement now the highest priority, while positioning themselves as the center of political power in the region. They are taking a leading role in shaping the Islamic alliance and positioning a key role in the peace process and regional settlement. The Saudis have also managed to shift US policy to refocus on the Shiite threat from Iran and Hezbollah.

Jordan finds itself at the center of most of these regional issues. From the peace process, resettlement, the Syrian crisis and the potential escalation in terrorism post-Raqqa, which put us in an extremely delicate position. In navigating these issues, we must maintain economic stability and national security, while also receiving less political support from our allies.

Jordan must work well with key stakeholders and be flexible in the role it plays with a laser focus on ensuring Jordanian national security is the top priority. Jordan must also prepare for the internal and external response to the US to listing the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group. We must clearly identify who our allies are, where each actor sits on our key issues and forge a path through the middle to bring as many allies along as we can. This could also involve supporting them on issues important to them.

Jordan’s involvement in the peace process and any resettlement agreements remain imperative. The Israeli vision that expands settlement to more Arab countries could inflame already difficult issues in Jordan. We must be at the center of this process to ensure a good outcome for everyone, including Jordan.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - May 21, 2017

To protect the northern border with Syria

One of the major challenges for Jordan at the moment is the situation in the south of Syria. With the battle in Mosul coming to an end and final preparations for a confrontation in Raqqa, IS fighters and cells are looking for a new base within Syria’s borders and are being pushed further south. There is a real risk that southern Syria will collapse into complete chaos, with the terrorists’ logistics and support units, and IS fighters and operatives resettling in the southern border regions.

Jordan finds itself on the path to a situation where it is confronting IS operatives on its borders, which will not only increase the threat of terrorism, but criminality more broadly as well. Jordan is also seeing an increase of non-sate actors on its borders, especially those ideologically opposed to the political system.  For many, the risk of these actors is equal to that of IS.

These threats are not unlikely to result in traditional confrontation in the border regions, nor will they be a short-term challenge. The threat will spill over the border and requires a shift in the approach to dealing with terrorism to meet the new reality. Following Mosul and Raqqa, IS is changing its tactics, it no longer has a strong base of operations and will likely fall back to the insurgency model of operation.

Jordan has no interest in putting its troops on Syrian soil. However, it needs to contain the approaching threat. As such, Jordan will continue to monitor developments in the southern border regions of Syria and keep its options open for specific and limited operations on the other side of the border to mitigate its risks as the US, UK and even Turkey does today.

The strategy of dividing Syria into four “de-confliction zones” monitored by international troops works well for Jordan. It has the potential to avoid the southern part of the country collapsing into chaos and means that Jordan will not have to face the threat on its own. The strategy proposed by Russia, Turkey and Iran does not yet face US objections, which means that it may be the strategy going forward to achieve a ceasefire and begin the stabilization of Syria.

The success of this plan is in Jordan’s interest, so it should work to include international actors to be part of the process. The more partners in the stabilization of Syria, the higher the potential for success and the lower the risk of threats crossing the border into Jordan following the fall of Raqqa.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - May 14, 2017

Civil Military relations (CMR) a serious challenge

Civil Military relations are a challenge that states must always grapple with. Issues arising in this area need to be addressed in the early stages to avoid serious problems in the future. There are signs in Jordan recently that it is an issue that needs to be confronted.

Police forces have direct contact with citizens as representatives of the state. If police relations with civil society begin to turn negative, there will inevitably be a negative impact on the state itself.

We have recently seen complaints about the attitude towards citizenry from police and traffic cops. The behavior of police, including the way they speak to people and the way they enforce law and order must always be as professional and respectful as possible.

Implementing security plans such as control points and traffic stops should take into consideration the security of both the police and the people. Procedures used in stopping cars, and the location of inspection points need to be studied carefully in order to maximise the security of all involved and make people feel safe. Protecting the dignity of citizens by applying these measures with respect is also essential in building positive relations between citizens and police.

It is important to remember that to face the terrorist challenges of today, there is a key role for citizens, which can be encouraged by making people feel positive toward the whole security apparatus. It was really shocking and sad to hear that a teenager died under police investigation. In order to uphold the legitimacy of the police and security forces, we must minimize these incidents and consider whether there are cultural issues within the police and security apparatus that need to be addressed.

We are also seeing it in the heavy-handed implementation of traffic policing which is feeding feelings of anger amongst the people. The purpose of traffic policing is to disincentivize violations of the law and change behaviours and attitudes that put people’s life at risk. It is more important to stop unsafe driving than illegal parking, especially when almost no information is provided about where or when the parking ticket was issued. How is the system supposed to change behavior if there is no information about where the violation occurred?

The more bureaucratic and ungainly the policing system becomes, the less likely people are to engage with it in good faith. If the police lose credibility and trust, Jordanians will be less likely to report threats and violations of the law. By the same token, if engaging with the police involves inhibiting levels of bureaucracy and paperwork or procedures that do not engender trust then people will disengage and prefer not to have any contact with our police.

It is imperative to build positive and constructive relations between citizens and police, but this can only happen if police are engaging, approachable and respectful. They are servants of the state and servants of the people. As Samuel Huntington so eloquently argued, the key is “military professionalism.”

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - May 7, 2017

Preparing for after Raqqa: Jordanian anti-terrorism strategy

As the battle to liberate Raqqa inches closer, the growing instability in the south of Syria underlines the need for Jordan to prepare for the consequences. One of those consequences is likely to be Daesh falling back to the border regions to regroup and rebase. Jordan must avoid this outcome as any Daesh presence on the border represents a clear threat to Jordan.

There is no apparent strategy for protecting the south amongst allies. The US presence is currently focused on Raqqa and the surrounding areas with the objective of stabilization in the first stage. However, the unintended consequences of this renewed presence could be a new wave of escalation. Any such result will have a direct impact on the security of Jordan’s borders.

Jordan currently faces multidimensional risks. The conflict in Syria and Iraq are a real threat the border regions. Jordan is in the middle of the global red zone of terrorism. However, Jordan’s security establishment must also keep in mind that the threats are also internal.

There are, undoubtedly, multiple dormant terrorist cells in Jordan. The threat of these cells greatly increases as Daesh is routed. Dormant cells will activate to prove that the terrorist organization is still operating, capable of successful attacks and expanding its territory. We will see a transformation in Daesh to a more decentralized model as its assets and people are isolated and separated.

It is important to understand the recent US strike in Syria as political rather than operational. The target, location, style of attack and the fact they informed the Russians of the attack demonstrate the US was sending a message regarding its new position in Syria. Direct military action from the US represents a significant change in their role in and the nature of the conflict itself. US allies, including Jordan must be mindful of this development and respond accordingly.

Jordan’s focus should be to prevent border attacks and maintain stability in the border regions. We need greater cooperation between our intelligence and military and a strategy that uses local proxies to fight ISIS on Syrian soil avoiding unilateral troops on the ground.

While we may not be seeing sophisticated attacks in Jordan, traditional and disjointed insurgency still presents a threat. We must enhance the capacity of our security forces and dedicate greater effort to secure sensitive areas and inhibit the growth of local terrorists.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - April 23, 2017

Important in calculating the risk of Daesh

Since the appearance of ISIS in Iraq and Syria over the last few years, journalists have been analyzing the situation. However, the approach of much of the coverage focuses on the number of fighters and their nationalities, which suggests a misunderstanding of the region and its people.

Western journalists have preconceived notions about the universality of the concept of nation states and many fail to understand that nationhood is a relatively modern concept, particularly in the Middle East where society and culture is based on thousands of years of development, at the core of which is a tribal mentality. The history of the region is one of tribes, brought together at various times and in different forms by strong leaders to form region-wide civilizations and empires.

The relevant empire in this situation is obviously the spread of Islam where various methods were used to convert the populations and bring them under the rule of the Caliphate. Over hundreds of years Islam has been overlaid local cultures and customs such that the shared culture across the region is those inculcated through Islam, far more than any modern notion of nationalism.

ISIS is tapping into that shared religious and cultural history to appeal to people across the region. The modern borders that define nation states across the region are not the best frame through which to assess the success of ISIS’ recruitment.

Understanding the origin of the fighters is useful in a practical sense for law enforcement and national security agencies responding to growing levels of radicalization to understand factors such as upbringing and life circumstances, but this is only part of the puzzle. This is demonstrated by estimates that 1,400 people from France have travelled to the region to fight with ISIS, and according to UK Police numbers, 700 British residents who were fighting alongside ISIS are now back in the UK.

This phenomenon can be explained if seen through the lens of ISIS’ declaration of a caliphate creating a global movement that transcends national borders by tapping into the shared culture of Islam, albeit an entirely warped interpretation of the religion.

When journalists talk about the majority of ISIS fighters coming from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey, and Jordan it is quite misleading. Yes, there is a problem with radicalization in a country like Jordan, and yes there are many Jordanians who are fighting with ISIS. But Jordan shares a border with Iraq and Syria, has high levels of youth unemployment and a majority population of refugees. However, according to official Jordanian sources the current number of Jordanian fighters in both Syria and Iraq is around 900 fighters, this obviously doesn’t the existence of the phenomena but shows that the numbers circulating today in some reports are not accurate.

In addition, while we often see estimates of the number of fighters from these countries, we don’t look at where they actually came from and very rarely hear that nearly 20% of fighters were residents or nationals of Western European countries.

The facts remain that the whole world is facing the risk of ISIS and radicalization. There are various levels of threats depending on proximity to the region and the profile of various countries as a target for ISIS, but let us not fall into the trap of creating stereotypes that do not consider the cultural or historical context and lead to an unfair demonization of a country that is otherwise key in winning this battle and distract us from those real threats.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - April 13, 2017

Where is the Syrian crisis heading?

With the US strike on Syria this week the Syrian crisis appears to have returned to its original dynamic. The escalation towards Syrian president Bashar al Assad is once again central to the US position and has brought it back in line with other countries that up until now have not been on good terms with the new Trump Administration. As a result we have seen the G7 Ministerial Summit entrust US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson as the representative of not just of the G7 countries, but also Gulf and other neighboring countries to deliver a message to Moscow regarding their position towards Assad and the rules for a new political solution.

It is important to see the US strike in Syria as a political message not as war message. The target, location, style of attack and that they informed the Russians of the attack demonstrate that the US wanted to send a clear message regarding its new position in Syria. Direct military action from the US represents a significant change in their role in and the nature of the conflict itself.

The Syrian crisis is even more of a delicate balance now with global pressure on Russia to step back from its support of the Assad regime. Moscow must make the next move, but either way, we are likely to see an escalation on the ground.

The US has achieved multidimensional gains with this strike. Firstly, it has restored alignment of its position with European and Arab allies, who welcomed the strike. It has also blunted the accusations against the Trump Administration around its close ties to Russia, which cost them a National Security Adviser and was threatening the role of Trump’s son in law, Jared Kushner.

In addition, the strike has gone a long way to restore the trust of Israel, whose previous attacks in Syria were seen as a shift in power in the conflict. The strike has signaled a new American military presence in Syria, which could soon be expanded to the liberation of Raqqa.

The pressure on Moscow might not precipitate a political solution in Syria in the short term, but it is a clear challenge to Russia and its allies. The Russian axis in the region are clearly gearing up for an increased American presence in Syria, as it could lead to the US directly confronting the role of Hezbollah and Iran in the conflict, which could greatly escalate tensions with Moscow.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com 

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Politics Author: - April 9, 2017

Visiting British PM’s message

May’s visit is important because it initiates a new phase of discrete UK polices in the Middle East. Aside from the international coalition which Jordan and UK are part of, a UK-Jordan initiative to counter the terror threats is in train. This bilateral understanding aims to develop new capabilities to strike ISIS targets by enhancing the capacities of the Jordanian Air Force.

It is also important that the British initiative includes a long-term cooperation that aims to improve countering violent extremism in the region. This is an integral issue for both Jordan and the UK. For the British it is important to address the sources of radicalization in the region, many of which have connections with radical members on their soil. Any de-radicalization process in Britain requires a measure of addressing the source of funding and training of terrorism in the Middle East.

Clearly it is also an essential issue to address for Jordan. Jordan requires concrete support in applying a more decisive process of de-radicalization. Indeed, Jordan needs to focus on accelerating the de-radicalization to counter their citizens who have gone to Syria and Iraq to fight, as well as those who are radicalized within its borders.

The Obama strategies that created a vacuum in Syria, which was eventually filled by Russia are being remedied and the lessons are being learned. During the visit, May also discussed ways in which the UK can assist Jordan to address the consequences of the Syrian conflict. Clearly the UK is taking steps to support Jordan and ensure a direct role in Syria and the rebuilding process.

We are also seeing the Trump administration seeking to protect its interest in Syria by engaging in Raqqa. The UK is seeking to maintain and build its presence in the Middle East in order to protect its interest. Jordan is strategically important for this, as it is central to Syria, Iraq and regional terrorism.

The symbolism of the visit during the post-Brexit transition demonstrates the shift in UK policies to secure UK interests. This may be the first step of a transition in strategy that London will adopt to guarantee its presence and interests in around the world.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - April 7, 2017

قراءة هادئة في الضربة الامريكية على سوريا

لم يكن من المستبعد انتقال الادارة الامريكية الى مرحلة شن هجوم عسكري على سوريا، خصوصاً بعد التسريع الامريكي الاخير و تبني موقف تصعيدي تجاه سوريا في اليومين الاخيرين على خلفية مجزرة خان شيخون.

الحقيقة ان اي قراءة متأنية لطبيعة التحرك الامريكي تشير بوضوح ان موقف الادارة الامريكية مرتبط بأجندة سياسية و اهداف ترغب الادارة الامريكية بتحقيقها، و ليست كما تبدو الامور بانها انقلاب مفاجئ في المواقف مرتبط بحدث معين كالحديث عن تغير موقف الرئيس بعد رؤيته لصور المجزرة الاخيرة في سوريا.

التحليل المنطقي يشير ان التحرك الامريكي الخارجي قد يكون في جوهره هروباً من ضغوط داخلية. ان حجم الضغوطات التي تتعرض لها ادارة ترامب في الداخل الامريكي يفوق اي تصور. فيبدو ان اتهام هذه الادارة بالتواطئ مع روسيا كان له الاثر الاكبر في تبني فكرة التصعيد الامريكي خصوصاً في سوريا، بحيث تظهر ادارة ترامب على انها تواجه روسيا و تصطدم بسياساتها مما يمكن ترامب و فريقه من الرد على كافة الاتهامات و دحضها بعد ان بدأت هذه الاتهامات بالاطاحة بافراد ادارة ترامب واحداً تلو الاخر حيث وصلت الامور الى زوج ابنته كوشنير. لهذا فان التحرك العسكري المحدود في سوريا يبدو كافياً لاعطاء الانطباع ان ترامب في حالة مواجهة مع  موسكو لا بل يقوم بضرب مصالحها و يعيد فرض وجود الولايات المتحدة مجدداً في المنطقة على عكس كافة الاتهامات التي تسوق تماهي ادارته و انسياقها وراء موسكو.

اما الحديث عن العمل العسكري في سوريا فهو فعلياً يهيأ الجميع الى تواجد عسكري امريكي في سوريا، و هو امر تعمل الولايات المتحد عليه منذ شهرين تقريباً، لا بل تجري الاستعدادات له على قدم و ساق.

 فمن الواضح ان ادارة ترامب اتخذت قراراً بضرورة ان يكون تحرير الرقة من قبضة داعش بوابة عبور للرئيس الامريكي نحو نسف صورة الادارة الامريكية السابقة غير القادرة على محاربة الارهاب و تؤسس للاعلان عن وجود امريكي في سوريا. فمعظم التقارير الامنية تشير الى تعاظم التواجد الامريكي في سوريا و العمل على تهيئة القوات الكردية لتكون شريك للقوات الامريكية في عملية استعادة الرقة التي لاتبدو انها تقتصر على عمليه استعادة او تطهير من تنظيم داعش بل تبدو في جوهرها عملية استيطان امريكي طويلة الامد لمنطقة الجزيرة و بالتالي الحديث عن وضع اليد الامريكية على حقول النفط و الغاز في تلك المنطقة.

الاحتفاء الاسرائيلي بالضربة الامريكية في سوريا يشير بوضوح ان تل ابيب ترغب في توظيف الحضور الامريكي تجاه اعادة تثبيت حالة التوازن العسكري السائد في المنطقة.  فالشهر الماضي شهد ارسال رسالة روسية   قوية لاسرائيل، خصوصاً عبر الرد السوري على استهداف الطائرات الاسرائيلية المغيرة على سوريا كرد على التحرك الاسرائيلي الامر الذي اوحى بتغير جذري في سياسة الردع في المنطقة. فاسرائيل التي لم تستطع منع التواجد الروسي العسكري في سوريا تعايشت مع هذا التواجد الا انها اليوم تجد بالتدخل الامريكي فرصة لاعادة رسم الامور و ترتيب التوازنات من زاوية ضرورة الا تفكر موسكو في تغيير معادلة الردع في هذه المنطقة، لهذا اصرت الحكومة الاسرائيلية على التأكيد انها كانت على اطلاع على تفاصيل و موعد الضربة الامريكية بطريقة بدت و كأنها شريك في الضربة.

الضربة العسكرية الامريكية لسوريا هي ضربة محدودة لكنها ضربة لها رمزية كبيرة، فهي تشير ان الولايات المتحدة باتت حاضرة و  راغبة بالتدخل على الارض في سوريا. لهذا فان خيارات التصعيد او التهدئة اليوم ترتبط بقدرة جميع الاطراف على البحث عن مخرج سياسي للازمة في سوريا، فالولايات المتحدة مهتمة بالشرق السوري، اما روسيا فقط استوطنت الساحل المتوسطي و اسرايل ترغب باعادة رسم الامور في المنطقة وفقاً لرؤيتها مما يعني ان احتماليات الحرب و المواجهة تضعف امام بروز خيار التسوية الاقليمية التي تضمن لاسرائيل مصالحها وتثبت قواعد الحرب و موازين القوى في المنطقة، و تضمن كذلك للولايات المتحدة مصالحها و لا تؤثر على مصالح روسيا في سوريا و المتوسط. لهذا فان بوابة التسوية الكبرى قد تكون المخرج الوحيد الذي يساعد الجميع على الحفاظ على المكتسبات و عدم الاضطرار لدفع خسائر كبيرة عبر فكرة المواجهة و الحرب.

د.عامر السبايلة

  

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