Author Archives: Amer Al Sabaileh

Politics Author: - September 4, 2016

Jordan and refugee crisis

Historically, the Middle Eastern region has been living in continuous crisis since II WW.  These continuous crisis are also linked to the refugees case. Jordan, in particular, was the most affected place on this level. Waves of refugees had their impacts on Jordan: the 1948 and 1976 Palestinian waves of refugees, then the 1990 Palestinian refugee wave after Sadam’s invasion to Kuwait, the Iraqi war 1990-2003, and The Syrian crisis that heavily affected the Jordanian society, not to forget, our Yemeni, Lebanese and Libyan friends who found in Jordan a good place to settle in.

Back to the issue of the Syrian refugee crisis. Jordan is hosting the biggest refugees camps; for more than five years Jordan has received hundred thousands of refugees. After the recent terrorist attacks on the Jordanian borders , Jordan started to adopt a more cautious strategy in receiving refuges. From one side, security seems to be the main reason behind the over control or the blocking of the smooth feeling of refugees, as security information indicates a high risk coming from the fleeing of terrorists among those refugees, mainly those who came from ISIS controlled territory. From the other side, It is obvious that Jordan is not satisfied with the level of support which the International Community has assigned to Jordan, especially in the last two years when the issue of security became the priority of the International community.

However, Jordan has its own right to close its borders and protect its national security, and apply the measures that ensure its own security. Nonetheless, it is important also that this kind of strategy has a margin of flexibility. Especially when it comes to specific humanitarian cases. In the case of the older refugees, sick, handicapped, single mothers with young children, elderly and kids with serious health problems, those should be treated in a different way far from any political decision because  laws and restrictions in their simplest sense fall in front of humanitarian cases.

Jordan has played the most significant role in the management of refugee crisis, and it even responded to the pressure by allowing humanitarian agencies to provide food and water to refugees on the borders under army supervision. However, the International community should show more understanding to the Jordanian position, at the same time Jordan should be more flexible toward individual humanitarian cases and remember the words of Benjamin Franklin: “It takes many good deeds to build a good reputation, and only one bad one to lose it.”

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Read more
Politics Author: - August 28, 2016

The impacts of Turkey’s new position on Syrian crisis

The regional dynamics are clearly imposing a new reality on the Syrian crisis, while the military coup in Turkey has created the opportunity for the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to reposition himself and his administration taking a systematic approach to change his previous policies and use a new style of politics to solidify his position.

Since May 2016 when Ahmet Davutoglu lost the Prime Ministership, the Turkish government has been changing its policy settings in order to break the isolation from other countries due to its former policies. Restoring relations with Russia was one of the major priorities. The Turkish President’s recent visit to St Petersburg was a practical step in this direction, where discussions included Turkey’s new position on the Syrian crisis. It is important to remember the tensions between Turkey and Russia over the last 12 months due to clashing involvement in Syria.

The logic behind the move is Turkey’s priority to prevent any possible future for an independent Kurdish state. Turkey has allies in this endeavor as Syria and Iran also oppose an independent Kurdish state and this common goal has brought them together to face this potential threat to their interests. The shift in language from Turkish officials highlights this as they express their concerns about protecting the sovereignty and unity of the Syrian state.

It is now in Turkey’s interests to stabilize Syria as soon as possible as prolonging the crisis only increases the changes of a new Kurdish state somewhere along the Turkish-Syrian border.

This shift in priority and action from Turkey regarding Syria could be a real game changer. The Turkish-Russian rapprochement means that Ankara no longer views Syria through the zero sum lens of toppling the regime versus maintaining the crisis, but as an existential threat to its borders, no matter whom else support such a move.

As a result, the US has been forced to act on its own without intermediaries, especially in northern Syria. US warplanes have flown over the city of Hasakah in a symbolic gesture to protect the balance of power in that region. Until recently, the US worked very closely with Turkey in actions in Syria.

All this suggests that military escalation in the north of Syria is highly possible, especially in areas controlled by Kurdish forces. While this shift in Turkish policy could rebalance power and influence in the region, it will definitely lead to a noticeable change in the crisis in Syria.

The interesting question, however, is whether this new position from Turkey is real or just a temporary tactical move that on one hand is a powerful move to further its own strategic interests in the region, but on the other provides leverage for Turkey amongst its key allies. The impact on internal Turkish politics could be the key to this and to whether Erdogan can maintain the distancing from the US, by playing into Russia’s hands.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

Read more
Politics Author: - August 22, 2016

Constructive criticism helps improve performance

The state of perpetual crisis and ongoing security risks in the Middle East over the last six years has put a lot of stress on internal security services across the region.

Jordan, in particular, continues to face extraordinary internal security challenges from the fall of Iraq in 2003 and the Syrian crisis has only increased the pressure and strain on the Jordanian security system.

With no end to these challenges in sight, the load and pressure is only going to increase and given the dynamic nature of the situation could evolve and change at any time.

With the security services on full alert 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, the pressure on the system and individual personnel can impact performance and the capacity to cope and respond to the increasing levels of crime and the heightened risk of terrorism.

Without advocating any policy, it is important to acknowledge that this kind of pressure is bound to result in some mistakes being made. It is also important to acknowledge that individuals who are putting themselves in harms way to protect our society are doing their best in an extremely difficult situation.

Individual mistakes are not necessarily the result of incompetence, nor are they indicative of a fault in the system.

While the system should, and does learn from its mistakes to identify ways to improve the system and maintain our safety, security is not the only challenge the Jordanian state is currently facing.  There are also huge political challenges, which include protecting, strengthening and improving Jordanian institutions to face down these challenges during a turbulent time in the region.

Security is clearly the priority of most countries in the region at the moment and in Jordan the security and military establishment have played and continue to play a key role in maintaining internal peace.

We must acknowledge the effort and the successes, we must be careful to focus on constructive criticism, which strengthens our country versus those that seek to destroy our system. We must focus on improving the system rather than seeking revenge.

Mistakes do not diminish the successes of our system in maintaining our security and they must not be used to characterize the institutions that are integral to our continued way of life.

When mistakes are made, there should be a pragmatic approach to identify whether there is a need to improve our system and we must recognize when it is simply human error, made under duress. We are in a crisis and while punishment may make us feel better temporarily, it does not necessarily make us stronger, not does it make us safer.

We must learn from mistakes, where we can, to make our system stronger. But we must also remember that our institutions are the very system that are keeping us safe, and it is in everyone’s interest to protect them and make them stronger. Attacking our own institution for their mistakes, or even their limitations, is not in our interests, in fact it is in our enemies interests to do so.

There have been many reports of mistakes and scandals in international security systems. We must distinguish between human error, systems under intense strain and actual broken institutions. In all of these situations our priority must be to fix the underlying problem, improve and strengthen our institutions and support them in maintaining our safety. Surely that is the ultimate goal and measure of success.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

Read more
Politics Author: - August 21, 2016

الاتراك و معادلات تغيير مسار الازمات

واقع جديد تفرضه معطيات الازمات في المنطقة. محاولة الانقلاب في تركيا قدمت للرئيس التركي فرصة ذهبية لاعادة التموضع السياسي و انتهاج نهج براغماتي قادر على احداث تغيير حقيقي في السياسة التركية و الخروج من مأزق خيارات المرحلة السابقة.


انتهجت حكومة العدالة و التنمية منذ خروج احمد داوود اوغلو سياسة تهدف للخروج من مأزق العزلة الدولية عبر التلويح بالانقلاب على المواقف السابقة للحكومة التركية خصوصاً مواقفها من دول الاقليم و روسيا. الا ان الخطوات العملية لهذا التحول التركي بدأت فعلياً مع زيارة الرئيس اردوغان الى سان بطرسبرغ و الاتفاق على تحديد اولويات جديدة في طبيعة التعاطي التركي مع الازمة السورية.


وجهة النظر المنطقية تشير ان الاولوية التركية الحالية المتمثلة في مواجهة مشروع الدولة الكردية تضع تركيا و سوريا و ايران -التي سيزورها اردوغان قريباً- في نفس المصاف، مصاف الدول المتضررة من مشروع الدولة الكردية. المصلحة المشتركة لهذه الدول تجعل من مشروع الدول الكردية قاسماً مشتركاً لصيغة تفاهمات جديدة، الامر الذي يفسر الحديث التركي المتكرر مؤخراً عن ضرورة حماية وحدة الاراضي السورية، و هو تعبير عن قناعة تركية بأن استمرار الازمة السورية ووصولها الى نقطة المساس بوحدة الاراضي السورية سيكون انعكاسه الاكبر على الدولة التركية في المقام الاول. هذا ما يفسر السعي التركي الحثيث لمواجهة اي تحرك كردي قد يفضي مستقبلاً لمشروع انشاء دولة او كيان مستقل على الحدود التركية السورية.

التغير في طبيعة التعاطي التركي مع الازمات في المنطقة و على رأسها الأزمة السورية بات يمثل عامل التغيير الأكبر. فالتقارب الروسي التركي يعني منطقياً ان انقرة لم تعد تتعاطى مع الازمة السورية ضمن الخطوط الجمراء السابقة، خصوصاً فيما يتعلق برؤية اسقاط النظام في سوريا او اطالة امد الازمة. تركيا ستسعى لاستثمار هذا التقارب حصرياِ لافشال مشروع الدولة الكردية، خصوصاً ان سياسات كثير من الدول الكبرى تتماهى بوضوح مع هذا المشروع.


الولايات المتحدة تجد نفسها اليوم مضطرة للتحرك على الارض في سوريا دون وسطاء اي بمعنى اخر ان تركيا و سياستها في سوريا و خصوصاً في الشمال السوري لم تعد تصب في خانة الولايات المتحدة و مبدأ توازن القوى على الارض و الذي كانت تحدثه السياسة التركية و تستمره واشنطن سياسياً.


 الاحداث الحالية تشير بوضوح الى ارتفاع في احتماليات التصعيد القادم في الشمال السوري خصوصاً في المناطق التي تسيطر أو قد تسيطر عليها القوات الكردية. السياسة التركية الحالية قد لا تعيد خلط اوراق الازمة السورية فقط بل قد تؤسس الى تغير ملفت في طبيعة و شكل الازمات في المنطقة. و يبقى السؤال الاهم  يتمحور حول حقيقة التغير التركي و ان كان هذا التغيير منهجياً ام تكتيكاً مرحلياً، و كذلك قدرة السياسة التركية على احداث مثل هذه التحولات التي قد لا تتقاطع مع سياسة حلفاء أنقرة التاريخيين و قدرة أنقرة علي التعاطي مع الانعكاسات الامنية التي قد تطال الداخل التركي الناتجة عن مثل هذ التحولات.


د.عامر السبايلة

Read more
Politics Author: - August 16, 2016

Aleppo battle and the Turkish Russian rapprochement

Many analysts believe that the battle that is currently underway in Aleppo could see the end of the Syrian crisis. However, it would be a mistake to think that this battle will come to its conclusion easily. From the very start of the Syrian crisis, this city has represented the weakest point for the Syrian regime. It is not near the traditional strongholds of the Syrian government and holds a strategic position on the Turkish-Syrian border, which is a major entry point for weapons and fighters into Syria.

The battle could lead to a political solution in Syria, a process which has been stalled. The Syrian Army and its allies are pushing hard to capture the city in order to secure a key strategic foot hold on the border, so it is likely there will be a concerted effort, in what could be a bloody, drawn out battle. Many of the groups who are fighting will fall if the regime can capture the city, in fact some are even calling it the “promised battle”.

Some reports indicate that opposition groups have received new supplies of US-made anti-tank missiles in order to hold Aleppo. Meanwhile, the Russians appear to have little involvement at this stage. Moscow appears to be focused on influencing Turkish politics in order to achieve its ends in Syria. The recent summit in St. Petersburg between Putin and Erdogan was an important step for both Erdogan who is seeking his way out of his internal crisis and Putin who is leveraging recent events in Turkey to put an end to the Syrian crisis. While Turkey’s role remains ambiguous, regional powers are clearly facilitating and supporting fighters in Syria and the border areas.

Politically, there is pressure on Erdogan to From a political point of view, many new factors might influence Erdogan to fall in line. Recent events have highlighted renewed calls for a Kurdish state, which could align Turkey with Syria and Iran who are also pushing back on the idea. The prospect of economic cooperation with Russia including various strategic projects could lead Erdogan to rethink his political positions and the way in which they have aggravated the situation in Syria. Erdogan’s desire to free himself from the demands of western powers could also find him compromising with Russia, at least in Syria..

The battle in Aleppo is the last tactical confrontation with a clear path for a political solution to follow. While the battle may no end the Syrian crisis altogether, it could very well mark the beginning of a political process that brings an eventual end to the conflict in Syria. It is, in fact likely to lead to a battle in the city of Dara’s in the southern part of Syria.

Over the coming days, we will see if Erdogan is really willing to cooperate with Putin in Syria. If not, Moscow may find itself obliged to step in to Aleppo and restart the frozen political process in Geneva.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Read more
Politics Author: - August 7, 2016

Divisions from psychology to geography

Over the last century, turbulence has been the status quo in the Middle East. This continuous crisis has seen various trends come and go, and the last five years have further highlighted sectarian divisions, both ethnic and religious, within and across borders.

Many believe that sectarian differences also represent psychological divisions amongst people. Given the arbitrary origins of the current borders, perhaps a regional stabilization strategy could involve aligning these psychological divisions with geographical ones.

Some of the sectarian divisions can be traced back to the Iranian revolution in 1979, which was closely followed by the eruption of Persian-Arab conflict with the almost decade long Iran-Iraq war. This period also saw a rise in Wahhabism as Khomeini doctrine fostered division between Shias and Sunnis, Arabs and Persians.

Since then, sectarianism has taken on more complex dimensions, while the Shia-Sunni and Persian-Arab tensions still exist, in some situations those differences have been put aside to further other agendas.

After the fall of Iraq in 2003, a new wave of sectarianism swept through the region. There is a school of thought that Iraq will struggle to maintain its national identity due to the divisions and sectarianism amongst its population. Syria faces many of the same challenges, as does Yemen and likely any other country in the region where internal conflict boils over.

The trend is towards a weakening of national identity while regional groups, ethnicities and sects are the modern component parts of identity in the Middle East. Ethnicity and religious identity being the strongest identifier, weakening social structures and fragmenting countries and nations in the region as we know them.

Much like with the establishment of the current borders, secularism was the only remedy for these trends, however we have seen a systematic anti-secular approach following the II World War. We have seen a marriage of Theocracy and Autocracy spreading, and having a distinctly negative impact on the cultural identity on countries across the region.

In addition, historically, international intervention has been focused on secular countries such as Egypt, Iraq and Syria. The recent coup in Turkey appears to be the leverage President Erdogan needed to shift the last secular system in the region towards a more “theocratic regime” as he eliminates his opposition and weakens the secular military power base, which acted as the counter balance to his Islamic preferences.

These developments are likely to encourage some of Turkey’s minority communities to push for independence. Groups such as the Kurds and the Alawites, who also live in Syria and Iraq already want their own country, and their further marginalization in all of the countries they currently live in has only spurred them on.

The failure to build secular national identities is one of the major reasons that we are seeing such fragmentation, in combination with the growing power and authority the region cedes to religion.

Mark Sykes, the British Foreign Secretary and architect of the modern borders of the region, 100 years ago, noted that the people of the region have a very strong ethnic pride, and building national identifies would be a challenge.

The destination of path we are currently on, with rising ethnic and sectarian division, is likely to be a shift from psychological and cultural division to geographical ones.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Read more
Politics Author: - July 31, 2016

Critical trends and challenges facing Europe

Since the first terrorist incidents in Paris, Europe found itself in an open confrontation with new styles of terrorism. Unconventional terrorism, very simple operations on level of planning, but they are still based on the element of surprise. The European lifestyle is under threat because this new style of terrorism is simply targeting all aspects of civic life, and these aspects can never turn to military barracks.

Europe is facing a kind of terrorist strategy based on spreading chaos and frequent attacks on various places. This is stated in France and seems as well to reach many European countries, Germany now. These frequent attacks do not necessarily require big numbers of terrorist or any sophisticated tools, but it targets vital places, transportation, shopping centers, cafes’, music halls and restaurants., etc. Such action does not mean that this will be the only exclusive applied tactic of terrorism. Furthermore, the trend of violence might take  a more violent and sophisticated dimension. However, the simple operations represent a very dangerous model due to its capabilities to hit spending the lowest cost which thus increases the pressure on the security system, drains its energy and resources, and simultaneously creates an atmosphere of fear that affects negatively both the social and political structure of the society.

Challenges in Europe are several. On the internal level, facing the waves of terrorism is essential, yet facing the emerging waves of the growing extreme right groups can noticeably be a critical challenge. These extreme groups are always apparent in the culture of fear and hatred which seems to be fertile soil to grow in.

On the political level, both Right and Left wings seem to lose credit for the sake of new protagonists in the political scene. The extreme right groups are threating the center right groups while new emerging protest groups seem to threat the center left groups, i.e. some serious transformations might take place and re shape the political identity of future for the European governments. That might lead also to a phase of political instability.

These transformations might additionally affect the security systems in each country especially on the structure and the efficiency of security systems. Moreover, it might also put in question the capacity of many parties in dealing with current and future risks and challenges without having negative impacts on the European constitutions and its human values.

The security challenges in Europe are increasing, and closing an eye on the source of the current problem “having the enemy at home” might lead to a crueler situation.  So far, most of the attacks conducted in Europe were not sophisticated i.e. no exceptional weapons were used, but what if these operations turn to be more complicated? What if the security systems prove to be inefficient in facing such escalation?

Europe security challenges are many, yet the future political challenges might still be more serious if the security situation continues to deteriorate, and this new terrorist strategy of spreading chaos goes on.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Read more
Politics Author: - July 29, 2016

أميركا و تفعيل الجبهة الجنوبية في سوريا.. لماذا الان؟

لا يمكن قراءة الاعلان الامريكي بتفعيل جبهة الجنوب السوري خارج اطار التفاهم الامريكي الروسي الاخير الذي أفضى الى ضرورة القضاء على كافة التنظيمات الارهابية دون استثناء. التنسيق العملياتي على الارض يعني ان التفاهمات الاخيرة قد تفضي الى توزيع الادوار الرئيسية في مواجهة تنظيم داعش بين موسكو وواشنطن، او بالاخص عملية اجتثاث التنظيم من الجغرافيا التي شغلها علي مدار السنتين الاخيرتين.

استراتيجية المواجهة الاخيرة مع التنظيم ترتكز في جوهرها على ضرورة فصل الجغرافية السورية عن العراقية و هي فعلياً الامتداد الواسع الذي حظي به تنظيم داعش منذ اعلان دولته. الفصل في هذه الحالة يمثل القطع المامل بين طرفي التنظيم و امتدادهو حصر اجزاءه في اماكن جغرافية تابعة اما للموصل او للرقة.  هذا الاجراء يستدعي التركيز بصورة أكبر على المنطقة المعروفة بمثلث التشابك الحدودي “سوريا، الاردن ،العراق” و التي عرفت بالمنطقة الرخوة أمنياً و انهاء اي محاولات لتوظيف هذه المنطقة مستقبلاً في مسألة ادامة الصراع.

تقاسم الادوار بين الولايات المتحدة و روسيا يبدأ بضرورة ان ينخرط التحالف الدولي في عمليات ذات حضور و تأثير اكبر على الارض. فالتعاطي الروسي مع ملف مواجهة داعش في سوريا كان اكثرقوةً و  حضوراً من طريقة تعاطي التحالف الدولي. اما الان فالولايات المتحدة معنية بتغيير قواعد الاشتباك على الارض خصوصاً بعد استنفاذ اخر الاوراق التي كان يعول عليها في مواجهة داعش بالانابة “جيش سوريا الجديد”. اذا فالاستعداد للتعاطي مع جبهة الجنوب و التداعيات المتوقعة لمعركتي الموصل و الرقة تدفع بالولايات المتحدة اليوم للتحرك بصورة غير تقليدية لضمان تحقيق انجاز على الارض تنهي به ادارة الرئيس أوباما حقبة حكمها الذي امتد لثمانية سنوات.

من جهة أخرى، يجد الاردن نفسه امام مضطراً لواقع تفرضه الجغرافيا و مسارات المعارك على الارض. الخطر الذي بات يتهدد الحدود الشمالية الاردنية و الناتج عن التجمعات المتزايدة لتنظيم داعش او الفصائل المبايعة له، يضع الاردن امام مواجهة حتمية في الايام القادمة، مما يعني ان انتهاج استراتيجية مواجهة استباقية قد يكون التكتيك الانسب للهروب من استحقاقات اخطر في المستقبل، خصوصاً ان الاردن بعد حادثة الرقبان الاخيرة التي استهدفت حرس الحدود الاردني خرج من حالة المواجهة السلبية الى المواجهة المباشرة المفتوحة مع التنظيمات الارهابية.

  تفعيل الجبهة الجنوبية لسوريا في اطار المواجهة مع داعش يعني ان تغييرات جذرية قد تطرأ قريباً على المشهد السوري. فالعملية قد لا تقتصر على المرحلة الحالية فقط بل على المراحل القادمة مرحلة المواجهة مع التنظيمات و فلولها.

د.عامر السبايلة 

Read more
Politics Author: - July 25, 2016

اوروبا في مواجهة احتمالات الفوضى الامنية

منذ  أحداث باريس دخلت أوروبا في مواجهة مفتوحة مع نمط جديد من الارهاب. ارهاب غير تقليدي، بمعنى عمليات بسيطة لا تحتاج الى تخطيط كبير لكنها مبنية بالاساس على عامل المفاجأة. فنمط الحياة الاوروبي هو المستهدف الرئيسي اليوم، و المحلل لهذا النمط من الحياة يدرك أنه نمط مبني على تفاصيل مدنية كثيرة يصعب التعامل معها أمنياً كما يستحيل تحويل المجتمع لثكنات عسكرية مغلقة.


اوروبا اليوم تواجه استراتيجية نشر الفوضى المتركزة في هذه المرحلة على الدول الاكبر فرنسا و المانيا. عمليات متكررة بسيطة الاجراء، لا تحتاج الى اعداد كبيرة من الارهابيين، ادواتها غير معقدة و تفاصيلها سهلة التطبيق. العمليات في مجملها موجهة لضرب تفاصيل الحياة اليومية التي تعد جزء من الحياة اليومية في اوروبا التي لا يمكن فعلياً حمايتها بشكل مبالغ به كالمقاهي و المطاعم ووسائل المواصلات العامة الخ.


لكن هذا لا يعني ان طريقة الاستهداف هذه ستبقى على ما هي عليه في المستقبل. فالامور قد تتجه باتجاه التصعيد و باتجاه تبني عمليات اكثر تعقيداً و اخطر نتائجاً على السلم الاهلي. العلميات البسيطة هذه تشكل اسلوب خطير قادر على الضرب باقل التكاليف و قادر في الوقت نفسه على زيادة  الضغوط على الاجهزة الامنية و استنزاف طاقاتها، و قادر في المقابل على خلق مناخات من القلق و الخوف تستطيع احداث خلل في البنية المجتمعية و السياسية  لكثير من الدول الاوروبية.

التحدي الاكبر اليوم امام اوروبا داخلياً، هو مواجهة تيارات اليمين المتطرف التي بدأت بالصعود الملحوظ على المشهد السياسي الاوروبي. فتيارات اليمين المتطرف عادة ما تعتاش على مادة الخوف و التخويف و خطابات العداء و الكراهية و التصنيفات العنصرية المبينة على مبدأ انا و الاخر. لهذا فان موجات الارهاب التي تضرب اوروبا اليوم تقدم فرصة ذهبية للتيارات المتطرفة للظهورو الاستفادة من الازمات السياسية و الامنية.


 على الصعيد السياسي، يخسر طرفي المعادلة السياسية من أحزاب اليمين  و اليسار على حد سواء. فاليمين المعتدل يخسر اليوم معركته لصالح أحزاب و تيارات اليمين المتطرف اما اليسار فيخسر معركته هو الاخر لمصلحة احزاب جديدة تبني اجندتها على فكرة رفض السياسات الحالية للحكومات، مما يعني ان تحولات حقيقية و جوهرية ممكن ان تطال شكل الحكومات و الاحزاب الحاكمة في اوروبا قريباً، الامر الذي قد يقود في النهاية الى حالة من عدم الاستقرار السياسي في كثير من الدول. موجة التحولات هذه لابد ان تؤثر كذلك على الاجهزة الامنية و تركيبتها و طريقة اداءها، فالهزات التي تتعرض لها الاجهزة اليوم هي هزات خطيرة تفتح باب التساؤلات على مصراعيه، خصوصاً فيما يتعلق بقدرة هذه الاجهزة على التعامل مع الاخطار الحالية او التعاطي مع الاخطار القادمة و قدرتها على الحفاظ على منظومة الامن الداخلي في بلدانها دون الاضرار بالمكتسبات الحضارية و القيم الانسانية التي تعد من ثوابت الدساتير الاوروبية.

التحدي الامني امام اوروبا في ازدياد مستمر، و عدم رغبة كثير من السياسين الاوروبيين بالاعتراف بالداء و اصله في بعض الاحيان قد يؤدي الى تفاقم الخطرالامني و ارتفاع منسوب الخطر المهدد للسلم الاهلي الداخلي في اوروبا. العمليات التي ضربت اوروبا الى الان هي ليست عمليات معقدة و لا تحتوي على اسلحة نوعية مع ذلك فان وقعها و تأثيرها بدأ يفوق وقع العمليات المعقدة و الاسلحة غير التقليدية، لكن ماذا لو تطورت هذه العمليات في المرحلة القادمة؟ ماذا لو فشلت الاجهزة الامنية بالتعامل مع هذه العمليات المعقدة؟


التحديات الامنية امام اوروبا كثيرة، و لكنها لا تقل اهمية عن التحديات السياسية القادمة في حال استمرت الاوضاع الامنية بالتدهور و استطاعت استراتيجية نشر الفوضى المتبعة حالياً ان تحقق غايتها و تستمر.



د.عامر السبايلة

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

Read more
Politics Author: - July 24, 2016

“Before and After” the Coup in Turkey

In Turkey, many signs have indicated the possibility of a military coup since 2013. Many reports refer to the level of discontent within the military establishment. According to those reports, Erdogan’s politics were the core source for numeral internal and external crisis; such crisis has also appeared within the same AKP especially after the continuous political dispute between Erdogna and his former colleagues.

In different scenarios, The Turkish politics were also subject to many doubts questioned by many countries, particularly when it comes to discuss the efficiency of the Turkish role in fighting terrorism, i.e. the role in Syria and controlling the waves of refuges to Europe.

Reviewing what happened in Turkey in the night of the 15th-16th of July, the first steps of the military coup showed that the operation is very systematic, well organized and nearly a successful process. This can be seen through these acts: seizing TV stations, announcing the fall of AKP government, deploying Tanks on the main bridges in Istanbul and Ankara, arresting top offices, controlling the military headquarter and launching coordinated attacks on police and security headquarters.

However, all changed in few hours, when Erdogan had the chance to talk on CNN Turk by Face Time application, which means that he couldn’t talk to any Turkish channel, asking people to take the streets. This call apparently was the game changer as the Coup was obviously relying on the curfew and the superiority of warplanes F16 and Apache which strangely looked so inefficient.

In all cases, the coup seems like an earthquake that will have its aftershocks inside Turkey, primarily on both levels security and economy. On the regional level, Erdogan will find himself very occupied dealing with internal issues which limit his capacity to be engaged in regional politics which gives him a very good chance to put an end to the crisis in the north of Syria.

Before the coupe attempt, the security situation in Turkey was already unstable, many attacks hit the Turkish cities which means that challenges coming from Erdgoan anti-Kurdish policies or the risk of war against terrorism will begin. Today, domestic security challenges are noticeably increasing, thus the after coupe strategy seems to work on the elimination of wide groups from within the Turkish state which will intensify the elements of chaos all over around. Therefore, this will definitely affect negatively the internal situation in Turkey that might suffer from the burdens of the coupe for a long-term of instability.

The other major risk, that Erdogan policies manifest a real desire to put an end to secularism in Turkey, which could also be one of the last few remaining centers of secularism in the Middle East. This will definitely create new attempts to launch the Islamists projects in Islamizing the whole region.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Read more