Category Archives: Politics

Politics Author: - September 17, 2017

Russia in the Middle East

Over the last few years, the Middle East has started to witness the presence of new political protagonists, Russia as a very strong evident player, Germany a strong but latent player, and China as a strong economic power.

Russia has played a role in most of the major issues in the Middle East. Since their entry into the Syrian crisis, we have seen analysts incorrectly predicting Russia’s next move through an apparent misinterpretation of their motives.

Many reported that Russia’s support of Syria was limited and unreliable. And yet, Syria has been the key to Russia’s successful engagement in the region and over recent years has proven reliable to its allies. Now, as Russia has become central to everything from regional security to the peace process, we must change our approach and recognize their influence and importance.

Russian diplomacy has been key to creating the potential for an end to the Syrian crisis. Critical to the shift in the Syria situation is changes in position from Turkey, US, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It was Russian diplomacy that positioned each of these countries to shift.

There is now a unified effort to fight terrorism, and it is this unity that is opening political channels and building alliance. Given the success in Syria, Russia’s influence in the region is spreading. Russia is now allied to both Israel and Syria. Logically that positions them very well as a mediator. This could lead to greater support from countries like Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian authority to play a similar role in the Peace Process, as Russia creates a political equilibrium while the White House instinctively backs Israel.

Russia also has long standing good relations with Iran as well as positive and growing engagement with the Gulf Countries. These could very well position Russia for a central role in reconciling the issues around Yemen and potentially even Qatar. We have even seen Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visit Gulf countries several times lately, suggesting that while Syria might be Moscow’s priority at the moment, it is taking the opportunity to broaden friendships and position for continued importance down the track.

Regional geopolitics are fluid and dynamic, with new protagonists and shifting alliances. Russia’s presence and influence in the region is unlikely to remain limited to Syria, but rather the beginning of a long-term presence and power in the region.

Dr Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - September 10, 2017

The path toward the regional settlements

Since the Astana negotiations the crisis in Syria has been on the path towards resolution. We have seen multiple factors working towards this resolution including the shift in Turkey’s position, the Russo-Turkish alliance and more recently the Gulf crisis and the rising Qatari-Saudi hostilities.

As the Qataris have positioned against Saudi Arabia, armed groups in Syria have lost financial and logistical support and as the Qatari Iranian rapprochement has developed, Syria and its allies have strengthened as Iran, Russia and Hezbollah have been draining the resistance in many areas across Syria.

As a major neighbor, Jordan has also begun to reposition as a result of these shifts. Stability in the south of Syria is a primary objective due to the direct link to stability and national security within Jordanian borders. In addition to security, from an economic and political perspective the stabilization and reopening of the border with Syria is a critical step in normalizing and rebuilding the Syrian state.

In parallel and of equal strategic importance for Jordan are efforts to reengage with Iraq and reopen that border. Broader regional developments have created new challenges on this front. Stability and security remains fragile, as does Jordan’s ability to build strong political ties. Additionally, the potential for renewed relations for Iraq with Saudi Arabia and the possibility of new border openings between them will be distracting and a higher priority for Iraq.

Given that regime change is no longer the priority in Syria and all of the key stakeholders have changed their narrative, resolution of the Syria issue and outlining a pathway to bring Syria back into the Arab League should become a priority. Egypt is in the box seat given that since the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood there, Egyptian-Syrian relations have been progressively improving.

While Saudi Arabia led the anti-Syria campaign in the region, they have cause to reconsider their position. They are seeking to disengage from conflict and crisis in Yemen and Syria as Qatar develops the upper hand in Syria and Iran encouraging the wasting of their resources in Yemen.

While Saudi Arabia has been quick to war and capable of building coalitions against shared enemies, the Minister of Defence, who has become the Crown Prince is transitioning to become King, which could very well result in a transition from war to peace.

Saudi Arabia has many great challenges to face in the coming generation and needs development and economic growth in order to face them. So while successfully waging war may have made him Crown Prince, stability and growth is the path to becoming King.

As a result, we may see a regional shift towards peace, social development and economic growth, things the Arab world greatly need.

Dr. Amer AL Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - August 27, 2017

Erdogan in Amman, but what Jordan really needs?

During his recent visit to Jordan, Turkish President Erdogan spoke of the Jordanian role in Jerusalem. However, he did not mention the Hashemite custodianship over the holy sites, which is interesting given the perceived Turkish support of the Hashemite custodianship of al Aqsa Mosque.

Erdogan’s visit comes at a time where Jordan is drifting from its strategic alliances with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. This drift is particularly stark in dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood, as these allies are taking steps to list the organization as a terrorist group while they are coming to power in municipality elections across Jordan. Of particular note is in the city of Zarqa, which represents a base of the radical Islamic doctrine. Any perceived support or even lack of opposition to the Brotherhood could send negative messages to Arab countries while edging closer to the Turkish government.

Turkey’s regional strategic position currently faces several major challenges. Firstly the dynamics in Syria have turned against them while the US is positioning ever closer to the Kurds and the potential for an independent state. Losing positioning in Syria is one thing, but the potential for Kurdish independence is a clear territorial threat to Turkey. In addition, Erdogan’s major ally in the Muslim Brotherhood are being targeted by the Arab countries and increasingly isolating Turkey politically, especially when combined with their supportive position on Qatar.

Erdogan is clearly seeking engagement in Jordan to counter the isolation from the rest of the Arab countries. For Jordan, this may well be the breaking of the ice for a traditionally lackluster relationship with Turkey. What we must be careful of in this though is that we do not send the wrong message to our Arab allies, and trigger isolation from them as well.

Jordan needs to diversify its options and open communications channels and engagement with all key players in the region, including Turkey. We can leverage our geographically strategic position in the region, but it must be part of a clear strategy that outlines what we want to achieve and where we want to position ourselves.

Jordan is increasingly being isolated politically, so a clear exit strategy from the current political situation is required. It will be challenging to rebuild ties with Syria and Iraq, but that is key given the shared borders. The deterioration of relations with Israel is also a serious challenge that must be addressed, as is the relationship with Saudi Arabia, which continues to head in the wrong direction.

With all the challenges that Jordan faces, what is needed is a new progressive vision that includes serious changes. Jordan needs a new direction and key to this is more credible people in the political system, as new policies are unlikely with old faces.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - August 22, 2017

ايتماتوف ورسائل الانسانية العابرة للحدود.. ملامح الشخصية ومعالم الابداع*


لا يمكن لاي انسان يقف امام قبر الشاعر القرغيزي الكبير جينكيز ايتماتوف الا ان يذهل من التضاريس الجبيلة التي تحيط بمرقد الراحل الكبير. اما حالة الانبهار الحقيقية فتتجسد في قدرة الشاعر الكبير على تحويل كلماته وافكاره الى مفاهيم عابرة  للحدود ومتمردة على عوامل الجغرافية.
من وجهة نظر متواضعة، تكمن اهمية جينكيز ايتماتوف في قدرته على الغوص في تفاصيل روحه الانسانية وقدرته على رسم واعادة قراءة الاسطورة  والمآساة الانسانية بادق تفاصيلها.  كذلك تبلور ابداع الشاعر في جرأة المواجهة وتناوله للمحظورات على انها واقع لابد من الاشارة اليه بجرأة والتعاطي معه بعيداً عن التابوهات المجتمعية، وبالرغم من حجم الالم تبقى نظرية بقاء الانسان محكوماً بالامل من اجمل الخصائص التي يمكن ملاحظتها في عالم اياتاتوف.
ان الافكار الكامنة في الموروث الروائي والشعري للشاعر القرغيزي الكبير تقدم لنا اليوم وصفة أمل يمكن ان تؤسس فعلياً لارضية فكرية قادرة على التقريب بين الافكار والشعوب والمختلفة. فالامل والرغبة بمستقبل افضل، والرؤية الانسانية المتجاوزة للحدود تشكل اليوم موروثاً انسانياً يمكن التعويل عليه جدياً في بناء القواعد الاساسية لمنظومة حوار وتواصل بين الشعوب تستند على اساس المساواة والاحترام والمنفعة المشتركة.
الادب والسياسة…النور والعتمة
اما ايتماتوف السياسي  فيمثل اليوم ايضاً وصفة وحاجة لكل عالم السياسة والسياسيين. فمع انتشار الصراعات والحروب، واتساع رقعة الارهاب والمواجهات الدموية وغياب اي افق لحلول حقيقية قادرة على احتواء الازمات والمشاكل خصوصاً مع اخذ مسألة الهجمات الارهابية بعداً كونياً يتطلب ايضاً الاتفاق على اسلوب مواجهة كوني، تظهر شخصية ايتماتوف الانسانية في عالم السياسة لتذكرنا بضرورة ان تتسم السياسة اليوم بمسحات انسانية. فالاديب والشاعر السياسي تكمن في شخصيته اضاءات انسانية لا يمكن ان يتم المساومة عليها حيث لا يمكن ان تنتصر المصالح على القيم او الموت على الحياة.
 ان عالمنا اليوم بحاجة ان يقرع في عالم السياسة جرس الانذار الاخير،  فلابد للامل ان ينتصر على الالم كما ينتصر الحب على الكراهية، وكذلك رغبة البقاء على الفناء والحياة على الموت. هذه الارضية التي يمكن لها اليوم ان توقف حركة السقوط المتواصل والانحطاط في القيمة الانسانية التي تذكيه اليوم كثير من السياسات. 
اما النقطة التي لا تقل اهمية في شخصية وتركيبة ايتماتوف فتكمن في قدرته على البحث عن المتشاركات دون الاضطرار الى انكار الاختلافات.
الانسانية ووصفة الحل
ان عالم اليوم المتخن بالتقسيمات الطائفية والدينية والاثنية لا يمكن له ان يواجه هذه التحديات الا عبر تبنى رؤية جديدة تسقط قدرة هذه الاختلافات على خلق الصراعات. فالمعيار الانساني هو القاسم المشترك الاكبر الذي لايمكن ان يتم اخضاعه للمعايير الطائفية، والجغرافية والاثنية والدينية. 
لهذا فان رسائل ايتماتوف  المتوافقة مع اعتبار الانسان والانسانية عامل موحد لبني البشر هو ما يجب تعزيزه وتغذيته اليوم. 
ان تشكل هذه القناعات هو الاساس الوحيد الذي يمكن ان تبنى عليه اي عملية تقارب بين البشر وهو كذلك السلاح الوحيد القادرعلى انهاء الظاهرة القائلة بان الاختلاف سبب من اسباب الصراع.
ان الرسالة التي يجب العمل على ابرازها هي الرسالة الانسانية الكونية، التي يمكن ان تقرب بين الاجساد والعقول في  المسافات والافكار، ولعل أهم الواجبات الاخلاقية يتطلب ان يقوم كل انسان بدوره في اطار هذه المعادلة الشاقة. 
من هنا، ان القاء الضورء على الموروث الشخصي والفكري والابداعي للراحل ايتماتاتوف يشكل نقطة مهمة في عملية كسر طوق العتمة الذي بات يطبق على عنق البشرية، ويشكل نقطة مضيئة يمكن التعويل عليها مستقبلاً في ايجاد متشابهات قادرة على بناء شراكات متوازنة بين الحضارات عوضاً عن الانسياق خلف الصراعات غير المتناهية.
د. عامر السبايلة


*مادة كتبت على خلفية المشاركة في المنتدى الدولي للكتاب والمثقفين “قراءات في أيتماتوف: حوار الثقافات” الذي استضافت مدينة بيشكيك، عاصمة جمهورية قرغيزستان،  خلال الفترة 17-19 أغسطس/آب 2017. هذا النص يلخص مداخلة  الكاتب في المنتدى وقد كان فيه مشاركاً . وقد أشرف على إدارة وإجراء هذا المنتدى الهام لشخصية أدبية من الوزن الثقيل مثل أيتماتوف منسق مجموعة الرؤية الاستراتيجية “روسيا – العالم الإسلامي” السفير فنيامين بوبوف. كما ألقيت كلمات ترحيبية لراعي المنتدى رئيس جمهورية قيرغيزستان ألمازبك أتامبايف ولوزير الثقافة والإعلام والسياحة في جمهورية قيرغيزستان توغلباي كازاكوف ولـنائب وزير خارجية الاتحاد الروسي ميخائيل بوغدانوف. كما شهد المنتدى مداخلات المشاركين فيه من روسيا وتتارستان وقرغيزستان والصين وطاجيكستان ومصر ولبنان وفلسطين. إليكم، قراءنا الأعزاء، هذه المقالة القيمة.

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Politics Author: - August 20, 2017

Jordan’s geo-political priorities now

With increasing tensions and complexity in the region, Jordan should focus on strong bilateral relations with Syria and Iraq as the first priority of national security.

There is no doubt that regional politics are heating up even further, and Jordan’s ties with the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, have changed regarding economic support and aid. The evolving Saudi role in the region can have a negative impact on Jordan, as this might drive regional settlement and normalization of relations with Israel which will lead to marginalize any Jordanian role in the region.

While Jordanian relations with the US remain strong, American priorities have shifted dramatically and are built on strategic and economic common interest. The distinct deterioration of relations between Israel and Jordan puts more pressure on Amman and could also lead to negative outcomes, not least in developments around Palestine.

In this evolving environment, Jordan must change the way it manages its political strategy, how it communicates and how it engages in the region. Seeking better relations with Damascus and Baghdad is no longer a luxury, and is a necessary measure to position Jordan to influence how the crises are addressed in order to protect the future economic and security stability.

Jordan needs to take another look at how it engages in regional politics and implement a new strategy based on a clear objective. This is unlikely to be successful with the current mentality and protagonists that led to the deterioration between Jordan and its neighboring countries, particularly Iraq and Syria. We have seen many officials responsible for these issues openly declaring anti Syrian and Iraqi positions.

The same approach and tools are unlikely to be effective in a new phase of common strategic interests with our neighbors. It is a huge challenge for Jordan and needs a clear vision, the right tools and a high level of political flexibility.  It is time to change faces in Jordan, time for new strategic minds to take part in the decision making process.

These changes are needed if we are to face the coming challenges. We must communicate to our neighbors that we are undertaking this change and are looking to establish and build strong relations with our neighbors and the region.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - August 14, 2017

“Internal political efficacy” is a priority

The challenges facing Jordan have been increasing over the last few months. While much of the focus has been on the external threats, modern history teaches us that while Jordan’s stability is inextricably linked with the stability of the region, maintaining stability amongst the population and the internal community is just as important.

The lessons learned from the uprising in April 1989 should lead us to what has been done to address the underlying issues that pushed people to take the streets. The south of Jordan holds the majority of the country’s wealth and resources – from potassium, phosphate, tourism and the key port of Aqaba. However people in the south are marginalized suffer from a lack of services, poverty and unemployment.

There is a distinct lack of development strategies or any serious socio-economic plan to address these issues. We need more than the same old rhetoric, and while there are no easy solutions in the short term, we must make a start now.

Jordanians have never been anti-state, in fact we do respect the establishment and believe that the GID and Jordanian Armed Forces (JAF) protect and guarantee our stability. It is important to capitalize on this and be careful not to lose that support.

The recent shooting of a police officer in Maan should act as a wake up call to respond to the risk of losing the people’s support. It is important to impose the state sovereignty and punish anyone who threatens this authority. But it is also important to remember that when people become frustrated from feelings of helplessness they lose control and so does the state. It also creates fertile ground for radical ideology to take root.

Jordan’s economy needs reform through a progressive vision that takes into consideration the change in international politics. Jordan should consider a more independent strategy that takes the needs and desires of citizens into account.

Recent incidents and risk indicators should serve as a wake up call to the political leadership to reconsider the concept of national security. It is not limited to technical security and border protection. There needs to be a more progressive strategy with programs that provides citizens what they need and communicates a coherent narrative to develop our economy and communities. Only this will combat radicalization and meet the challenges that we face as a nation and as a people.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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