Category Archives: Politics

Politics Author: - May 21, 2017

To protect the northern border with Syria

One of the major challenges for Jordan at the moment is the situation in the south of Syria. With the battle in Mosul coming to an end and final preparations for a confrontation in Raqqa, IS fighters and cells are looking for a new base within Syria’s borders and are being pushed further south. There is a real risk that southern Syria will collapse into complete chaos, with the terrorists’ logistics and support units, and IS fighters and operatives resettling in the southern border regions.

Jordan finds itself on the path to a situation where it is confronting IS operatives on its borders, which will not only increase the threat of terrorism, but criminality more broadly as well. Jordan is also seeing an increase of non-sate actors on its borders, especially those ideologically opposed to the political system.  For many, the risk of these actors is equal to that of IS.

These threats are not unlikely to result in traditional confrontation in the border regions, nor will they be a short-term challenge. The threat will spill over the border and requires a shift in the approach to dealing with terrorism to meet the new reality. Following Mosul and Raqqa, IS is changing its tactics, it no longer has a strong base of operations and will likely fall back to the insurgency model of operation.

Jordan has no interest in putting its troops on Syrian soil. However, it needs to contain the approaching threat. As such, Jordan will continue to monitor developments in the southern border regions of Syria and keep its options open for specific and limited operations on the other side of the border to mitigate its risks as the US, UK and even Turkey does today.

The strategy of dividing Syria into four “de-confliction zones” monitored by international troops works well for Jordan. It has the potential to avoid the southern part of the country collapsing into chaos and means that Jordan will not have to face the threat on its own. The strategy proposed by Russia, Turkey and Iran does not yet face US objections, which means that it may be the strategy going forward to achieve a ceasefire and begin the stabilization of Syria.

The success of this plan is in Jordan’s interest, so it should work to include international actors to be part of the process. The more partners in the stabilization of Syria, the higher the potential for success and the lower the risk of threats crossing the border into Jordan following the fall of Raqqa.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - May 14, 2017

Civil Military relations (CMR) a serious challenge

Civil Military relations are a challenge that states must always grapple with. Issues arising in this area need to be addressed in the early stages to avoid serious problems in the future. There are signs in Jordan recently that it is an issue that needs to be confronted.

Police forces have direct contact with citizens as representatives of the state. If police relations with civil society begin to turn negative, there will inevitably be a negative impact on the state itself.

We have recently seen complaints about the attitude towards citizenry from police and traffic cops. The behavior of police, including the way they speak to people and the way they enforce law and order must always be as professional and respectful as possible.

Implementing security plans such as control points and traffic stops should take into consideration the security of both the police and the people. Procedures used in stopping cars, and the location of inspection points need to be studied carefully in order to maximise the security of all involved and make people feel safe. Protecting the dignity of citizens by applying these measures with respect is also essential in building positive relations between citizens and police.

It is important to remember that to face the terrorist challenges of today, there is a key role for citizens, which can be encouraged by making people feel positive toward the whole security apparatus. It was really shocking and sad to hear that a teenager died under police investigation. In order to uphold the legitimacy of the police and security forces, we must minimize these incidents and consider whether there are cultural issues within the police and security apparatus that need to be addressed.

We are also seeing it in the heavy-handed implementation of traffic policing which is feeding feelings of anger amongst the people. The purpose of traffic policing is to disincentivize violations of the law and change behaviours and attitudes that put people’s life at risk. It is more important to stop unsafe driving than illegal parking, especially when almost no information is provided about where or when the parking ticket was issued. How is the system supposed to change behavior if there is no information about where the violation occurred?

The more bureaucratic and ungainly the policing system becomes, the less likely people are to engage with it in good faith. If the police lose credibility and trust, Jordanians will be less likely to report threats and violations of the law. By the same token, if engaging with the police involves inhibiting levels of bureaucracy and paperwork or procedures that do not engender trust then people will disengage and prefer not to have any contact with our police.

It is imperative to build positive and constructive relations between citizens and police, but this can only happen if police are engaging, approachable and respectful. They are servants of the state and servants of the people. As Samuel Huntington so eloquently argued, the key is “military professionalism.”

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - May 7, 2017

Preparing for after Raqqa: Jordanian anti-terrorism strategy

As the battle to liberate Raqqa inches closer, the growing instability in the south of Syria underlines the need for Jordan to prepare for the consequences. One of those consequences is likely to be Daesh falling back to the border regions to regroup and rebase. Jordan must avoid this outcome as any Daesh presence on the border represents a clear threat to Jordan.

There is no apparent strategy for protecting the south amongst allies. The US presence is currently focused on Raqqa and the surrounding areas with the objective of stabilization in the first stage. However, the unintended consequences of this renewed presence could be a new wave of escalation. Any such result will have a direct impact on the security of Jordan’s borders.

Jordan currently faces multidimensional risks. The conflict in Syria and Iraq are a real threat the border regions. Jordan is in the middle of the global red zone of terrorism. However, Jordan’s security establishment must also keep in mind that the threats are also internal.

There are, undoubtedly, multiple dormant terrorist cells in Jordan. The threat of these cells greatly increases as Daesh is routed. Dormant cells will activate to prove that the terrorist organization is still operating, capable of successful attacks and expanding its territory. We will see a transformation in Daesh to a more decentralized model as its assets and people are isolated and separated.

It is important to understand the recent US strike in Syria as political rather than operational. The target, location, style of attack and the fact they informed the Russians of the attack demonstrate the US was sending a message regarding its new position in Syria. Direct military action from the US represents a significant change in their role in and the nature of the conflict itself. US allies, including Jordan must be mindful of this development and respond accordingly.

Jordan’s focus should be to prevent border attacks and maintain stability in the border regions. We need greater cooperation between our intelligence and military and a strategy that uses local proxies to fight ISIS on Syrian soil avoiding unilateral troops on the ground.

While we may not be seeing sophisticated attacks in Jordan, traditional and disjointed insurgency still presents a threat. We must enhance the capacity of our security forces and dedicate greater effort to secure sensitive areas and inhibit the growth of local terrorists.

Dr.Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - April 23, 2017

Important in calculating the risk of Daesh

Since the appearance of ISIS in Iraq and Syria over the last few years, journalists have been analyzing the situation. However, the approach of much of the coverage focuses on the number of fighters and their nationalities, which suggests a misunderstanding of the region and its people.

Western journalists have preconceived notions about the universality of the concept of nation states and many fail to understand that nationhood is a relatively modern concept, particularly in the Middle East where society and culture is based on thousands of years of development, at the core of which is a tribal mentality. The history of the region is one of tribes, brought together at various times and in different forms by strong leaders to form region-wide civilizations and empires.

The relevant empire in this situation is obviously the spread of Islam where various methods were used to convert the populations and bring them under the rule of the Caliphate. Over hundreds of years Islam has been overlaid local cultures and customs such that the shared culture across the region is those inculcated through Islam, far more than any modern notion of nationalism.

ISIS is tapping into that shared religious and cultural history to appeal to people across the region. The modern borders that define nation states across the region are not the best frame through which to assess the success of ISIS’ recruitment.

Understanding the origin of the fighters is useful in a practical sense for law enforcement and national security agencies responding to growing levels of radicalization to understand factors such as upbringing and life circumstances, but this is only part of the puzzle. This is demonstrated by estimates that 1,400 people from France have travelled to the region to fight with ISIS, and according to UK Police numbers, 700 British residents who were fighting alongside ISIS are now back in the UK.

This phenomenon can be explained if seen through the lens of ISIS’ declaration of a caliphate creating a global movement that transcends national borders by tapping into the shared culture of Islam, albeit an entirely warped interpretation of the religion.

When journalists talk about the majority of ISIS fighters coming from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey, and Jordan it is quite misleading. Yes, there is a problem with radicalization in a country like Jordan, and yes there are many Jordanians who are fighting with ISIS. But Jordan shares a border with Iraq and Syria, has high levels of youth unemployment and a majority population of refugees. However, according to official Jordanian sources the current number of Jordanian fighters in both Syria and Iraq is around 900 fighters, this obviously doesn’t the existence of the phenomena but shows that the numbers circulating today in some reports are not accurate.

In addition, while we often see estimates of the number of fighters from these countries, we don’t look at where they actually came from and very rarely hear that nearly 20% of fighters were residents or nationals of Western European countries.

The facts remain that the whole world is facing the risk of ISIS and radicalization. There are various levels of threats depending on proximity to the region and the profile of various countries as a target for ISIS, but let us not fall into the trap of creating stereotypes that do not consider the cultural or historical context and lead to an unfair demonization of a country that is otherwise key in winning this battle and distract us from those real threats.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - April 13, 2017

Where is the Syrian crisis heading?

With the US strike on Syria this week the Syrian crisis appears to have returned to its original dynamic. The escalation towards Syrian president Bashar al Assad is once again central to the US position and has brought it back in line with other countries that up until now have not been on good terms with the new Trump Administration. As a result we have seen the G7 Ministerial Summit entrust US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson as the representative of not just of the G7 countries, but also Gulf and other neighboring countries to deliver a message to Moscow regarding their position towards Assad and the rules for a new political solution.

It is important to see the US strike in Syria as a political message not as war message. The target, location, style of attack and that they informed the Russians of the attack demonstrate that the US wanted to send a clear message regarding its new position in Syria. Direct military action from the US represents a significant change in their role in and the nature of the conflict itself.

The Syrian crisis is even more of a delicate balance now with global pressure on Russia to step back from its support of the Assad regime. Moscow must make the next move, but either way, we are likely to see an escalation on the ground.

The US has achieved multidimensional gains with this strike. Firstly, it has restored alignment of its position with European and Arab allies, who welcomed the strike. It has also blunted the accusations against the Trump Administration around its close ties to Russia, which cost them a National Security Adviser and was threatening the role of Trump’s son in law, Jared Kushner.

In addition, the strike has gone a long way to restore the trust of Israel, whose previous attacks in Syria were seen as a shift in power in the conflict. The strike has signaled a new American military presence in Syria, which could soon be expanded to the liberation of Raqqa.

The pressure on Moscow might not precipitate a political solution in Syria in the short term, but it is a clear challenge to Russia and its allies. The Russian axis in the region are clearly gearing up for an increased American presence in Syria, as it could lead to the US directly confronting the role of Hezbollah and Iran in the conflict, which could greatly escalate tensions with Moscow.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com 

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Politics Author: - April 13, 2017

USA fake

USA fake

Dopo le denunce verbali senza riscontri, dopo le dichiarazioni dei militari americani che dicono al mondo di aver visto dal satellite che l’aviazione siriana di Assad bombardava con il gas sarin la popolazione civile anche questa volta senza riscontri e senza aver portato i tracciati da cui inequivocabilmente sarebbe stato possibile capire se l’attacco chimico era stato programmato da Assad, ecco l’ennesimo colpo di scena.

L’intelligence Usa, non si è capito bene quale delle tante agenzie, ha intercettato un colloquio dei piloti siriani che si preparano ad attaccare con il gas la popolazione inerme.

Naturalmente le intercettazioni rimarranno segrete e quindi, se esistono facilmente manipolabili, ma sulla base di questa ennesima “bufala“ il Presidente Trump avrà la giustificazione alle azioni di rappresaglia in Siria.

E’ sempre tutto molto strano, e la domanda sorge spontanea: se gli americani hanno intercettato l’aviazione siriana in procinto di commettere un crimine contro l’umanità perché non sono intervenuti per fermarli?

© Riproduzione Riservata 

 

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Politics Author: - April 13, 2017

USA fake

USA fake

Dopo le denunce verbali senza riscontri, dopo le dichiarazioni dei militari americani che dicono al mondo di aver visto dal satellite che l’aviazione siriana di Assad bombardava con il gas sarin la popolazione civile anche questa volta senza riscontri e senza aver portato i tracciati da cui inequivocabilmente sarebbe stato possibile capire se l’attacco chimico era stato programmato da Assad, ecco l’ennesimo colpo di scena.

L’intelligence Usa, non si è capito bene quale delle tante agenzie, ha intercettato un colloquio dei piloti siriani che si preparano ad attaccare con il gas la popolazione inerme.

Naturalmente le intercettazioni rimarranno segrete e quindi, se esistono facilmente manipolabili, ma sulla base di questa ennesima “bufala“ il Presidente Trump avrà la giustificazione alle azioni di rappresaglia in Siria.

E’ sempre tutto molto strano, e la domanda sorge spontanea: se gli americani hanno intercettato l’aviazione siriana in procinto di commettere un crimine contro l’umanità perché non sono intervenuti per fermarli?

© Riproduzione Riservata 

 

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Politics Author: - April 12, 2017

Tornano le bombe in Egitto

Tornano le bombe in Egitto

Tornano le bombe contro i cristiani, contro la quotidianità di un paese e di un popolo che cerca lentamente di tornare alla normalità, anche se con governo che non ammette contradditorio e non tollera opposizioni democratiche.

Tutto purtroppo rientra nella ormai consueta attività di destabilizzazione che le organizzazioni terroristiche etero guidate mettono in campo per generare confusione  e panico nell’area medio orientale con lo scopo di disunire il più possibile i paesi che faticosamente tentano di collaborare e di fare fronte comune contro lo spettro del terrorismo islamico.

Allora si colpisce un mercato, una  chiesa, una moschea, una caserma, vecchia tattica.

Di fronte all’effetto devastante di una bomba ci si aspettava, però, un governo egiziano più attento alla difesa degli obiettivi citati.

In Egitto l’Intelligence utilizza ingenti risorse economiche ed umane per fare indagini anche sul nulla, ma si dimentica di procedere alla difesa passiva degli obbiettivi sensibili, nei giorni più a rischio dell’anno.

Strano, molto strano.   

© Riproduzione Riservata 

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Politics Author: - April 12, 2017

Tornano le bombe in Egitto

Tornano le bombe in Egitto

Tornano le bombe contro i cristiani, contro la quotidianità di un paese e di un popolo che cerca lentamente di tornare alla normalità, anche se con un governo che non ammette contraddittorio e non tollera opposizioni democratiche.

Tutto purtroppo rientra nella ormai consueta attività di destabilizzazione che le organizzazioni terroristiche etero guidate mettono in campo per generare confusione  e panico nell’area medio orientale con lo scopo di disunire il più possibile i paesi che faticosamente tentano di collaborare e di fare fronte comune contro lo spettro del terrorismo islamico.

Allora si colpisce un mercato, una  chiesa, una moschea, una caserma… vecchia tattica.

Di fronte all’effetto devastante di una bomba ci si aspettava, però, un governo egiziano più attento alla difesa degli obiettivi citati.

In Egitto l’Intelligence utilizza ingenti risorse economiche ed umane per fare indagini anche sul nulla, ma si dimentica di procedere alla difesa passiva degli obbiettivi sensibili, nei giorni più a rischio dell’anno.

Strano, molto strano.   

© Riproduzione Riservata 

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