Category Archives: Politics

Politics Author: - April 7, 2017

Trump il presidente flessibile

Trump il presidente flessibile

Dall’attendismo di Obama siamo passati all’interventismo di Trump, il gioco come al solito è truccato ed il nuovo Presidente Usa governa gli Stati Uniti sempre più a corrente alternata.

Sulla vicenda di Idlib ha dichiarato e messo in pratica la sua flessibilità peccato che lo abbia fatto senza alcun riscontro oggettivo, senza alcuna prova che il responsabile della strage sia stato Assad e senza neppure cercare di capire perché è successo e quali agenti chimici siano stati usati.

Serviva un pretesto per stroncare l’espansione Russa in Siria , per mescolare ancora le acque già torbide e permettere a Trump finalmente di mostrare i muscoli.

Ed i muscoli li abbiamo visti oltre 50 missili lanciati sulla base aerea siriana, una vera boccata d’ossigeno per i terroristi.

Ora ragioniamo sulla continua sclerosi politica degli Usa che alto combattono gli oppositori di Assad e dall’altro combattono contro Assad.

Nelle prossime settimane certamente Trump tenterà ancora di mostrare i muscoli anche diversificando su altre aree la sua azione militare.

© Riproduzione Riservata 

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Politics Author: - April 7, 2017

Armi chimiche in Siria

Armi chimiche in Siria

Idlib sotto attacco, uccisi con armi chimiche numerosi civili e molti bambini, l’orrore torna in Siria e subito i Media di tutto il mondo hanno individuato in Assad il responsabile del massacro.

Anche questa volta senza alcuna prova oggettiva e senza mostrare i tracciati radar statunitensi che potrebbero dire senza ombra di dubbio quali e quanti aerei da combattimento e quando hanno sorvolato Idlib.

Hanno tutti parlato di Gas Sarin, ma il Sarin ha altri effetti nocivi sulle persone e se utilizzato su supporti missilistici ha effetti devastanti in termini di numero di vittime, l’agente chimico potrebbe essere stato probabilmente di altra natura forse bombe al cloro, stoccate in deposito e poi esplose a terra a causa di un bombardamento convenzionale.

Un attacco chimico per fare 80 morti e non conquistare alcun vantaggio tattico a chi giova?

© Riproduzione Riservata 

 

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Politics Author: - April 7, 2017

قراءة هادئة في الضربة الامريكية على سوريا

لم يكن من المستبعد انتقال الادارة الامريكية الى مرحلة شن هجوم عسكري على سوريا، خصوصاً بعد التسريع الامريكي الاخير و تبني موقف تصعيدي تجاه سوريا في اليومين الاخيرين على خلفية مجزرة خان شيخون.

الحقيقة ان اي قراءة متأنية لطبيعة التحرك الامريكي تشير بوضوح ان موقف الادارة الامريكية مرتبط بأجندة سياسية و اهداف ترغب الادارة الامريكية بتحقيقها، و ليست كما تبدو الامور بانها انقلاب مفاجئ في المواقف مرتبط بحدث معين كالحديث عن تغير موقف الرئيس بعد رؤيته لصور المجزرة الاخيرة في سوريا.

التحليل المنطقي يشير ان التحرك الامريكي الخارجي قد يكون في جوهره هروباً من ضغوط داخلية. ان حجم الضغوطات التي تتعرض لها ادارة ترامب في الداخل الامريكي يفوق اي تصور. فيبدو ان اتهام هذه الادارة بالتواطئ مع روسيا كان له الاثر الاكبر في تبني فكرة التصعيد الامريكي خصوصاً في سوريا، بحيث تظهر ادارة ترامب على انها تواجه روسيا و تصطدم بسياساتها مما يمكن ترامب و فريقه من الرد على كافة الاتهامات و دحضها بعد ان بدأت هذه الاتهامات بالاطاحة بافراد ادارة ترامب واحداً تلو الاخر حيث وصلت الامور الى زوج ابنته كوشنير. لهذا فان التحرك العسكري المحدود في سوريا يبدو كافياً لاعطاء الانطباع ان ترامب في حالة مواجهة مع  موسكو لا بل يقوم بضرب مصالحها و يعيد فرض وجود الولايات المتحدة مجدداً في المنطقة على عكس كافة الاتهامات التي تسوق تماهي ادارته و انسياقها وراء موسكو.

اما الحديث عن العمل العسكري في سوريا فهو فعلياً يهيأ الجميع الى تواجد عسكري امريكي في سوريا، و هو امر تعمل الولايات المتحد عليه منذ شهرين تقريباً، لا بل تجري الاستعدادات له على قدم و ساق.

 فمن الواضح ان ادارة ترامب اتخذت قراراً بضرورة ان يكون تحرير الرقة من قبضة داعش بوابة عبور للرئيس الامريكي نحو نسف صورة الادارة الامريكية السابقة غير القادرة على محاربة الارهاب و تؤسس للاعلان عن وجود امريكي في سوريا. فمعظم التقارير الامنية تشير الى تعاظم التواجد الامريكي في سوريا و العمل على تهيئة القوات الكردية لتكون شريك للقوات الامريكية في عملية استعادة الرقة التي لاتبدو انها تقتصر على عمليه استعادة او تطهير من تنظيم داعش بل تبدو في جوهرها عملية استيطان امريكي طويلة الامد لمنطقة الجزيرة و بالتالي الحديث عن وضع اليد الامريكية على حقول النفط و الغاز في تلك المنطقة.

الاحتفاء الاسرائيلي بالضربة الامريكية في سوريا يشير بوضوح ان تل ابيب ترغب في توظيف الحضور الامريكي تجاه اعادة تثبيت حالة التوازن العسكري السائد في المنطقة.  فالشهر الماضي شهد ارسال رسالة روسية   قوية لاسرائيل، خصوصاً عبر الرد السوري على استهداف الطائرات الاسرائيلية المغيرة على سوريا كرد على التحرك الاسرائيلي الامر الذي اوحى بتغير جذري في سياسة الردع في المنطقة. فاسرائيل التي لم تستطع منع التواجد الروسي العسكري في سوريا تعايشت مع هذا التواجد الا انها اليوم تجد بالتدخل الامريكي فرصة لاعادة رسم الامور و ترتيب التوازنات من زاوية ضرورة الا تفكر موسكو في تغيير معادلة الردع في هذه المنطقة، لهذا اصرت الحكومة الاسرائيلية على التأكيد انها كانت على اطلاع على تفاصيل و موعد الضربة الامريكية بطريقة بدت و كأنها شريك في الضربة.

الضربة العسكرية الامريكية لسوريا هي ضربة محدودة لكنها ضربة لها رمزية كبيرة، فهي تشير ان الولايات المتحدة باتت حاضرة و  راغبة بالتدخل على الارض في سوريا. لهذا فان خيارات التصعيد او التهدئة اليوم ترتبط بقدرة جميع الاطراف على البحث عن مخرج سياسي للازمة في سوريا، فالولايات المتحدة مهتمة بالشرق السوري، اما روسيا فقط استوطنت الساحل المتوسطي و اسرايل ترغب باعادة رسم الامور في المنطقة وفقاً لرؤيتها مما يعني ان احتماليات الحرب و المواجهة تضعف امام بروز خيار التسوية الاقليمية التي تضمن لاسرائيل مصالحها وتثبت قواعد الحرب و موازين القوى في المنطقة، و تضمن كذلك للولايات المتحدة مصالحها و لا تؤثر على مصالح روسيا في سوريا و المتوسط. لهذا فان بوابة التسوية الكبرى قد تكون المخرج الوحيد الذي يساعد الجميع على الحفاظ على المكتسبات و عدم الاضطرار لدفع خسائر كبيرة عبر فكرة المواجهة و الحرب.

د.عامر السبايلة

  

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Politics Author: - March 27, 2017

What after the Syrian Israeli clash?

The recent Israeli attack in Syria could be part of a rebalanced power dynamic in the region. During the Syrian crisis Israel has launched several strikes against Syrian targets, which they claim were Hezbollah convoys and personnel.

This recent attack is one of the few times that Israel has actually declared it with sirens in Israel. Perhaps because of the consequences, including debris from a rocket in the northern Jordanian city of Irbid.

Syria’s reaction of launching missiles and a strong statement from the military is entirely new. This suggests they had support in this response.

According to many experts the surface to air S-200 (SA-5) missiles used by the Syrian army were unlikely to shoot down the Israeli jets, although their S300 missiles could have been more effective. These Russian made Syrian missiles meant Israel had to use its Arrow 3 missile defense system for the first time to destroy what the IDF described as a ballistic threat.

This was not the first time that Israeli jets conducted a strike in Syria, but it was the first time that they faced a strong military reaction. This could be a turning point as Israel becomes more cautious in carrying out such attacks.

Interestingly, it wasn’t only the military response from Syria that was novel. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Israel’s Ambassador to Moscow to protest the Israeli raid in Syria. This is the first time that Russia has interfered in this kind of incident. It is especially interesting given how recently Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Moscow, which does not appear to have impacted positively on relations between the two countries.

Russia’s long-term presence in Syria has already reshaped the balance of power. This will have implications for several countries, especially Israel who is not used to asking permission to conduct an attack.

While Russia is not an enemy to Israel, it sees Syria as an ally so Russia’s ongoing presence in the region could have wider impacts, including on regional settlement. Moscow is likely to engage in all of the issues that face the region, including the peace process. So perhaps Russia would like to see this confrontation lead to more constructive negotiations.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - March 27, 2017

What after the Syrian Israeli clash?

The recent Israeli attack in Syria could be part of a rebalanced power dynamic in the region. During the Syrian crisis Israel has launched several strikes against Syrian targets, which they claim were Hezbollah convoys and personnel.

This recent attack is one of the few times that Israel has actually declared it with sirens in Israel. Perhaps because of the consequences, including debris from a rocket in the northern Jordanian city of Irbid.

Syria’s reaction of launching missiles and a strong statement from the military is entirely new. This suggests they had support in this response.

According to many experts the surface to air S-200 (SA-5) missiles used by the Syrian army were unlikely to shoot down the Israeli jets, although their S300 missiles could have been more effective. These Russian made Syrian missiles meant Israel had to use its Arrow 3 missile defense system for the first time to destroy what the IDF described as a ballistic threat.

This was not the first time that Israeli jets conducted a strike in Syria, but it was the first time that they faced a strong military reaction. This could be a turning point as Israel becomes more cautious in carrying out such attacks.

Interestingly, it wasn’t only the military response from Syria that was novel. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Israel’s Ambassador to Moscow to protest the Israeli raid in Syria. This is the first time that Russia has interfered in this kind of incident. It is especially interesting given how recently Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Moscow, which does not appear to have impacted positively on relations between the two countries.

Russia’s long-term presence in Syria has already reshaped the balance of power. This will have implications for several countries, especially Israel who is not used to asking permission to conduct an attack.

While Russia is not an enemy to Israel, it sees Syria as an ally so Russia’s ongoing presence in the region could have wider impacts, including on regional settlement. Moscow is likely to engage in all of the issues that face the region, including the peace process. So perhaps Russia would like to see this confrontation lead to more constructive negotiations.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - March 19, 2017

The road to a better future

The importance of building a national identity in Jordan is ever increasing, as waves of sectarianism invade the region.

The 1979 revolution in Iran was the first to adopt the religious title of ‘Islamic revolution’, but we continue to seen the progression of religious influence that began in WWII where modern political Islam began spreading its doctrine and influencing the people of the Middle East, predominately through the Muslim Brotherhood.

Following the Arab loss in Palestine in 1967, Islamist voices criticized secularism blaming it for the humiliating defeat. Jordan was one of the main countries affected by the unification that was also exported to the Gulf countries by the Muslim Brotherhood who had deep links into the education sector across the region.

By the time Sadat took power in Egypt, the Islamization process had already started and has been the major catalyst for the changing cultural identity in the region. Following Sadat’s death, the Iraq-Iran war was promoted as an Arab-Persian war and saw the beginning of the fragmentation of ethnic, religious and sectarian divisions through the propaganda of hate and war.

The growing sectarianism in the region and the increasing conflict and violence should give us pause to consider the alternatives. Constant and increasing psychological division doesn’t just create the risk of greater geographic division, but condemns the region and its people to continuous civil war, with the ongoing threat of increased conflict.

With the current levels of sectarianism, it is difficult to be optimistic about the future of the region. The people of the region are living in chaos and daily bloodshed, but they have the right to live their lives in peace. However, nobody in the region can live in peace while the dominating mentality is based on exclusion, and the constant desire to eliminate the other.

It is difficult to see how we can escape this vicious spiral without a serious national project to restore a national identity based on shared values. The cultural change must be based on pillars that unify rather than divide, so it cannot be based on religious or ethnicity. It should be a progressive secular vision based on diversity and respect for all people. This may be difficult to achieve, but we need to start somewhere and soon if we want our children and the next generations to have a better life.

To be successful it needs a long-term strategy with a clear and transparent vision based on shared outcomes. It will take political determination and persistent pushing and follow up. Above all of that it needs a realistic understanding of the risk that the region is facing given the dominant view of radical groups that do not recognize borders or national identities. Our national identity should be based on values such as respect for a diverse humanity, which cannot be achieved without a systematic plan that unifies our citizens and reestablishes a new culture of shared national identity.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - March 12, 2017

New economic model needed

Although Jordan is facing various security challenges, the major challenge for Jordan is the economy. It is not a new issue as the economy has always been a major concern for Jordan. The issue has evolved over time and today sees a need for a new economic model for Jordan.

World politics is changing which means it is no longer possible to rely on the same policy of aid-dependency and donations. While Jordan retains an important geopolitical position, there has been a distinct shift in attitude from historic allies including the gulf countries. We need new policies that underpin a revised economic model that accounts for these changes.

After several attempts, it is clear that Jordan is not in a position to become a business and financial hub like Dubai or Singapore.  Jordanian decision-makers need to be more realistic in developing an economic model based on real development of rural zones through micro economic projects that fit into a strategy of food security.  Jordan’s economic development plan in the 1950s and 1960s was based on a comprehensive plan focusing on agriculture, including crop and animal resources, with cooperatives and farmers funds.

We must go back to those plans, as our economy will continue to stagnate if we rely on donations and aid. In fact, IMF loans are becoming more difficult to administer and manage. The Ministry of Planning must be clearer in their role as not merely a seeker of donations and aid, but where real effective planning is done. It should lead real change in local development, self-sustainability and even the cultural change.

This should also extend to the de radicalization strategy, which is not just a change in the religious narrative and school curriculums, but is also based on the socioeconomic change that public policies can achieve. We must make people feel productive to appreciate their existence and this cannot be achieved if people don’t feel that they are participating in building their future

Higher taxation might be a short-term solution to budgetary woes, but it deepens the overall issues especially on a social level, with increased crime, social violence, drugs, terrorism and organized crime. In addition, higher taxation further breeds an anti-establishment sentiment, creating antagonism for the political system.

Global politics are changing dramatically, with a greater focus on internal interests. We are seeing more countries, especially in our region collapsing into chaos. It is becoming normal for many countries to coexist with chaos, therefore, we must think seriously of reforming the economic and development model, with a greater focus on our citizens and their lives and not just on the regional situation.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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