Category Archives: Politics

Aleppo battle and the Turkish Russian rapprochement

Many analysts believe that the battle that is currently underway in Aleppo could see the end of the Syrian crisis. However, it would be a mistake to think that this battle will come to its conclusion easily. From the very start of the Syrian crisis, this city has represented the weakest point for the Syrian regime. It is not near the traditional strongholds of the Syrian government and holds a strategic position on the Turkish-Syrian border, which is a major entry point for weapons and fighters into Syria.

The battle could lead to a political solution in Syria, a process which has been stalled. The Syrian Army and its allies are pushing hard to capture the city in order to secure a key strategic foot hold on the border, so it is likely there will be a concerted effort, in what could be a bloody, drawn out battle. Many of the groups who are fighting will fall if the regime can capture the city, in fact some are even calling it the “promised battle”.

Some reports indicate that opposition groups have received new supplies of US-made anti-tank missiles in order to hold Aleppo. Meanwhile, the Russians appear to have little involvement at this stage. Moscow appears to be focused on influencing Turkish politics in order to achieve its ends in Syria. The recent summit in St. Petersburg between Putin and Erdogan was an important step for both Erdogan who is seeking his way out of his internal crisis and Putin who is leveraging recent events in Turkey to put an end to the Syrian crisis. While Turkey’s role remains ambiguous, regional powers are clearly facilitating and supporting fighters in Syria and the border areas.

Politically, there is pressure on Erdogan to From a political point of view, many new factors might influence Erdogan to fall in line. Recent events have highlighted renewed calls for a Kurdish state, which could align Turkey with Syria and Iran who are also pushing back on the idea. The prospect of economic cooperation with Russia including various strategic projects could lead Erdogan to rethink his political positions and the way in which they have aggravated the situation in Syria. Erdogan’s desire to free himself from the demands of western powers could also find him compromising with Russia, at least in Syria..

The battle in Aleppo is the last tactical confrontation with a clear path for a political solution to follow. While the battle may no end the Syrian crisis altogether, it could very well mark the beginning of a political process that brings an eventual end to the conflict in Syria. It is, in fact likely to lead to a battle in the city of Dara’s in the southern part of Syria.

Over the coming days, we will see if Erdogan is really willing to cooperate with Putin in Syria. If not, Moscow may find itself obliged to step in to Aleppo and restart the frozen political process in Geneva.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Divisions from psychology to geography

Over the last century, turbulence has been the status quo in the Middle East. This continuous crisis has seen various trends come and go, and the last five years have further highlighted sectarian divisions, both ethnic and religious, within and across borders.

Many believe that sectarian differences also represent psychological divisions amongst people. Given the arbitrary origins of the current borders, perhaps a regional stabilization strategy could involve aligning these psychological divisions with geographical ones.

Some of the sectarian divisions can be traced back to the Iranian revolution in 1979, which was closely followed by the eruption of Persian-Arab conflict with the almost decade long Iran-Iraq war. This period also saw a rise in Wahhabism as Khomeini doctrine fostered division between Shias and Sunnis, Arabs and Persians.

Since then, sectarianism has taken on more complex dimensions, while the Shia-Sunni and Persian-Arab tensions still exist, in some situations those differences have been put aside to further other agendas.

After the fall of Iraq in 2003, a new wave of sectarianism swept through the region. There is a school of thought that Iraq will struggle to maintain its national identity due to the divisions and sectarianism amongst its population. Syria faces many of the same challenges, as does Yemen and likely any other country in the region where internal conflict boils over.

The trend is towards a weakening of national identity while regional groups, ethnicities and sects are the modern component parts of identity in the Middle East. Ethnicity and religious identity being the strongest identifier, weakening social structures and fragmenting countries and nations in the region as we know them.

Much like with the establishment of the current borders, secularism was the only remedy for these trends, however we have seen a systematic anti-secular approach following the II World War. We have seen a marriage of Theocracy and Autocracy spreading, and having a distinctly negative impact on the cultural identity on countries across the region.

In addition, historically, international intervention has been focused on secular countries such as Egypt, Iraq and Syria. The recent coup in Turkey appears to be the leverage President Erdogan needed to shift the last secular system in the region towards a more “theocratic regime” as he eliminates his opposition and weakens the secular military power base, which acted as the counter balance to his Islamic preferences.

These developments are likely to encourage some of Turkey’s minority communities to push for independence. Groups such as the Kurds and the Alawites, who also live in Syria and Iraq already want their own country, and their further marginalization in all of the countries they currently live in has only spurred them on.

The failure to build secular national identities is one of the major reasons that we are seeing such fragmentation, in combination with the growing power and authority the region cedes to religion.

Mark Sykes, the British Foreign Secretary and architect of the modern borders of the region, 100 years ago, noted that the people of the region have a very strong ethnic pride, and building national identifies would be a challenge.

The destination of path we are currently on, with rising ethnic and sectarian division, is likely to be a shift from psychological and cultural division to geographical ones.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh