Tag Archives: Aleppo

Politics Author: - December 18, 2016

After Aleppo’s battle Jordan national security is the priority

The battle of Aleppo is one of the most important developments to see an end to the Syrian crisis, even though it won’t be the last battle. The Syrian regime’s win in Aleppo might, logically, push the fight against the terrorists to the south.

According to the experts the battle of Aleppo is a major step for the Syrian regime in regaining control of the country. In the absence of a clear vision from America, Russia with its allies have seized the moment to recapture Aleppo. Russia made a deal with Turkey to limit its involvement and support for the rebels in Aleppo. With the Turkish borders closed, the advantage shifted.

Recapturing Aleppo doesn’t give the Syrian Army full control over Syrian territory but it refocuses the conflict into a single dimension, fighting terrorism. A Trump White House will no doubt support this, as the President-elect has frequently expressed that his priority in Syria is to fight terrorism, and not political change. With the potential for new leaders in France and other European countries later next year, we may see more support for a similarly single-minded focus in Syria.

The battle of Aleppo will push the fight down to the south of the country. While Turkey was engaged in the north due to the proximity to its borders, Jordan may be forced to take a similar level of engagement as the fight pushes into the south. The impacts that this battle on the Jordanian borders will certainly decide level of the Jordanian engagement in such battle.

Jordan is closely monitoring the developments on that front. On military level, the Jordanian army is -at the same time- applying intensive border surveillance activities and setting the rules of engagement for any possible attack on Jordanian borders.

Jordan faces many challenges and threats with a lot of border territory with ISIS controlled areas in the Jordan-Syria-Iraq triangle. During the battle in Mosul there were reports of ISIS fighters close to the Jordanian border and any attempt to recapture Palmyra by ISIS will also put pressure on Jordan. Moreover, the recapturing of the city of Palmyra by ISIS would put more pressure on Jordan. Especially on the area of Iraqi, Syrian Jordanian shared borders.

The challenges for Jordan are only likely to increase and become more difficult to address. They will require a new way of dealing with threats, not just militarily and logistically but also politically. Jordan needs strong relationships with the Iraqi and Syrian counterparts as well as the capacity to build strong alliances with countries that can help Jordan in taking actions on the ground to confront these threats.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

Read more
Politics Author: - August 16, 2016

Aleppo battle and the Turkish Russian rapprochement

Many analysts believe that the battle that is currently underway in Aleppo could see the end of the Syrian crisis. However, it would be a mistake to think that this battle will come to its conclusion easily. From the very start of the Syrian crisis, this city has represented the weakest point for the Syrian regime. It is not near the traditional strongholds of the Syrian government and holds a strategic position on the Turkish-Syrian border, which is a major entry point for weapons and fighters into Syria.

The battle could lead to a political solution in Syria, a process which has been stalled. The Syrian Army and its allies are pushing hard to capture the city in order to secure a key strategic foot hold on the border, so it is likely there will be a concerted effort, in what could be a bloody, drawn out battle. Many of the groups who are fighting will fall if the regime can capture the city, in fact some are even calling it the “promised battle”.

Some reports indicate that opposition groups have received new supplies of US-made anti-tank missiles in order to hold Aleppo. Meanwhile, the Russians appear to have little involvement at this stage. Moscow appears to be focused on influencing Turkish politics in order to achieve its ends in Syria. The recent summit in St. Petersburg between Putin and Erdogan was an important step for both Erdogan who is seeking his way out of his internal crisis and Putin who is leveraging recent events in Turkey to put an end to the Syrian crisis. While Turkey’s role remains ambiguous, regional powers are clearly facilitating and supporting fighters in Syria and the border areas.

Politically, there is pressure on Erdogan to From a political point of view, many new factors might influence Erdogan to fall in line. Recent events have highlighted renewed calls for a Kurdish state, which could align Turkey with Syria and Iran who are also pushing back on the idea. The prospect of economic cooperation with Russia including various strategic projects could lead Erdogan to rethink his political positions and the way in which they have aggravated the situation in Syria. Erdogan’s desire to free himself from the demands of western powers could also find him compromising with Russia, at least in Syria..

The battle in Aleppo is the last tactical confrontation with a clear path for a political solution to follow. While the battle may no end the Syrian crisis altogether, it could very well mark the beginning of a political process that brings an eventual end to the conflict in Syria. It is, in fact likely to lead to a battle in the city of Dara’s in the southern part of Syria.

Over the coming days, we will see if Erdogan is really willing to cooperate with Putin in Syria. If not, Moscow may find itself obliged to step in to Aleppo and restart the frozen political process in Geneva.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

Read more