Tag Archives: jordan

Politics Author: - December 10, 2017

The new phase of terrorism

Many observers believe that recent developments in security measures have increased the effectiveness with which we can face terrorism, as evidenced by the falling number of attacks by IS or other groups. While we may have developed strategies and tact…

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Politics Author: - August 6, 2017

The risk of political isolation

The ever dynamic geopolitics of the Middle East have been particularly fluid recently. Since the recent visit to Riyadh by President Trump, which included a summit and announcement of an anti-terrorism coalition, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as the main political protagonist in the region.

If Saudi Arabia is serious about taking the initiative for real progressive reform within the Islamic world, then there is hope for change. However, it will not be easy, especially given the internal politics that the ruling class in Saudi is facing.

Separating the religious state and the nation state is the only real way to end the continuous official exploitation of religion. A clear division between the religious mandate as the custodian of the two holy mosques and the King of Saudi Arabia’s mandate as leader of the state is required. Religion must be depoliticized in order for an independent nation state in Saudi Arabia.

This would also mean that the Sunni Islam community would have a single interlocutor, who is also the custodian of the two holy mosques. This clear division could also create a clearer religious identity and legitimacy for the custodians.

In the meantime, we are also seeing normalization of relations between Israel and some Arab countries. The Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu has referred to this on two different occasions recently. Firstly he said that Israel is more interested in peace with Arab countries. Secondly, when he welcomed President Trump to Israel, he commented that he looks forward to the day when a plane could do the same route that President Trump did but directly go from Jerusalem to Riyadh, rather than having to route through a third country.

The increasing normalization of Israeli-Arab relations and the potential for an exclusive group representing the Sunni Muslim community, combined would have wider implications across the region and the world. In particular it could politically isolate some countries and reduce their influence.

Jordan is one of the countries that could be affected by these developments. Sovereignty over al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem could stir competition and rivalry among Muslim political system. We saw the potential for this in the recent issues as several groups claimed to have influenced the Israeli decision to reopen the mosque.

Jordan’s strategic geography has always been an advantage, but clever strategic thinking is required in order to leverage that advantage. Given recent developments, Jordan should be seeking a complete change in attitude, strategies and political decisions.

Jordan should seek to reengage with Iraq and Syria, as in any process of re building Syria, Damascus could be the lungs from which Jordan breathes. Jordan also needs to pivot to bolster its internal systems as true legitimacy comes from a strong internal political system. There is a real risk of increased weakening of the internal regime as a result of external factors like the Al Aqsa mosque.

It is important also to review how Israeli-Jordanian relations have deteriorated to this point. The Israeli Ambassador and entire staff have left Jordan, which is effectively an unofficial severing of diplomatic ties. Given the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel, it is important to revise how both countries got to this point.

Jordan must focus and be smart enough to avoid the potential political isolation that could be a result of recent developments in the region.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - July 10, 2017

What de-radicalisation implies

Any successful de-radicalization strategy requires an understanding of the nature of the problem and anticipation of the risks. It is it not an easy mission to comprehend the level of challenge unless there is, in the mind of the state, a long term vision with clear ideas about the model of the future Jordan.

Even with a solid approach, it is a difficult task. Frankly, we do not have strong de-radicalization narratives; instead we rely on the insufficient strategy of moderate clerics countering radical narratives. Without serious concrete changes in policies, communication and socio-economic development, this is unlikely to make a difference. 

This is not a religious battle, but rather it is a battle of existence, of life and death, where people should be integrated into the present rather than being prisoners of the past.  We need to make people feel positive about life, being productive and appreciating their existence. A comprehensive plan is essential, otherwise we are treading water towards failure.

Many would argue that radicalization is not the primary issue in Jordan, and that we just need to minimize the risk of violence and terrorist attacks. While we don’t have frequent terrorist attacks or major incidents at the moment, this kind of complacency will only lead to one outcome.

Radicalization is not only measured by security outcomes. The latent evolution of the phenomenon should be analyzed with a progressive methodology. If the current situation in many Jordanian villages and cities continues, radicalization will grow and in order for the state and its institutions to reflect societies positions, then policies and programs will adopt these radical tendencies.

These radical thoughts and approach will quickly spread through the security and military establishment as most recruits come from these villages and cities. Many would argue that the model we have is not radical, but the definition of radical will shift with the mentality of the people. The risk is when people reach the point where their attitudes, social behaviors, and thoughts are unconsciously radical, the state moves with them and radicalism is normalized.

The major challenge is, understanding the deep cultural problem of radicalism. We need a serious political will for change so we can hope to have smart minds to predict the problems and future implications through a serious diagnosis of the problem across all sectors of the population. Radicalization is not limited to school curricula or religious narratives. It needs to be at the top of the agenda for national security, from the revision of the security system, the state communication strategy and the socio-economic process. While it is a long process, a concerted and serious effort is required now to ensure that outcomes are achieved in the long-term.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - June 11, 2017

Qatar: When tolerance reaching its end

The roots of the tension between Qatar and other GCC countries go back several years to the Arab Spring. During this time, the GCC countries felt that Qatar was playing an active role in feeding the discontent, and the dispute was resolved with the transition of power of the Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani to his son Tamim in 2013.  As part of this transition, Qatar provided assurances of a shift in the role they played in the region.

The following year, the Gulf countries were not content with the progress and Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain all withdrew their ambassadors from Doha and called for similar sanctions that have been applied this week, including the cutting of diplomatic ties and closing all land, sea and air borders with the Gulf states.

The events of this week are the culmination of these tensions that have been playing out over the last four years. Qatar is accused of supporting extremism, which they have not made any effort to counter. In fact, Doha has undertaken aggressive media campaigns against Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia through the wide network of media outlets that they sponsor.

The issues with Qatar span the Arab world, as the impacts are felt across the region. The main players have tried over several years to promote change in Qatar, to no end. While it may appear reactionary, this process has been playing out for many years, and Qatar has not sufficiently responded to ease the tensions or address the concerns of their Arab neighbors.

This process of isolating Qatar is part of a systematic plan that is likely to attract international support. The move comes immediately following President Trump’s visit to Riyadh where he called for an Islamic coalition to fight terrorism and radicalism.

These developments place much greater pressure on Qatar to shift its policies and actions. The promises of the past are no longer going to be enough, and Qatar will need to provide concrete actions in order to avoid further complications for its relationships within the region and internationally, which will fundamentally impact on its economy.

From a Jordanian prospective, Jordan is fully aware of  the current situation and recognize that it is no longer a Gulf conflict, but one that impacts all Arabs. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt are key strategic allies for Jordan, so it was very logic for Jordan to consider a supportive position on this issue.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - April 9, 2017

Visiting British PM’s message

May’s visit is important because it initiates a new phase of discrete UK polices in the Middle East. Aside from the international coalition which Jordan and UK are part of, a UK-Jordan initiative to counter the terror threats is in train. This bilateral understanding aims to develop new capabilities to strike ISIS targets by enhancing the capacities of the Jordanian Air Force.

It is also important that the British initiative includes a long-term cooperation that aims to improve countering violent extremism in the region. This is an integral issue for both Jordan and the UK. For the British it is important to address the sources of radicalization in the region, many of which have connections with radical members on their soil. Any de-radicalization process in Britain requires a measure of addressing the source of funding and training of terrorism in the Middle East.

Clearly it is also an essential issue to address for Jordan. Jordan requires concrete support in applying a more decisive process of de-radicalization. Indeed, Jordan needs to focus on accelerating the de-radicalization to counter their citizens who have gone to Syria and Iraq to fight, as well as those who are radicalized within its borders.

The Obama strategies that created a vacuum in Syria, which was eventually filled by Russia are being remedied and the lessons are being learned. During the visit, May also discussed ways in which the UK can assist Jordan to address the consequences of the Syrian conflict. Clearly the UK is taking steps to support Jordan and ensure a direct role in Syria and the rebuilding process.

We are also seeing the Trump administration seeking to protect its interest in Syria by engaging in Raqqa. The UK is seeking to maintain and build its presence in the Middle East in order to protect its interest. Jordan is strategically important for this, as it is central to Syria, Iraq and regional terrorism.

The symbolism of the visit during the post-Brexit transition demonstrates the shift in UK policies to secure UK interests. This may be the first step of a transition in strategy that London will adopt to guarantee its presence and interests in around the world.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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Politics Author: - March 5, 2017

What Arabs need from the coming Arab summit in Amman

The upcoming Arab Summit in Amman is an important moment for the region. With ongoing crises in Yemen, Libya, Syria and others, the real challenges appear to be within Arab countries themselves. 

One of the major issues is the return of Syria to the Arab League after more than 6 years of crisis in Syria. The political solution seems to be the only option so Arab countries should make the political play to bring Syria back in to play a key role in stabilizing and rebuilding Syria. Past positions of staying out of the solution is no longer an option.

Yemen and Libya are also important issues to be solved under the Arab umbrella. They also need a new way of thinking and repositioning of major Arab countries. Egypt, as the most active Arab country could pave the way for better Arab cooperation, but the Saudi position is still the major indicator of how efficient this Arab effort to solve the crises will be.

Arab countries must understand that the longer the crises endure the worse it is for them. With Saudi concerns about Iranian influence in the region, it is important to review past policies and understand how they may have given Iran more space to influence, especially in the places where crises appears, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and now Yemen.

The sectarian trends cannot be countered by more sectarian polices, Arab Shia in Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen are originally Arabs, but the policies adopted by some Arab countries have pushed many of them closer to Iran and away from Arab leaders. These are important issue to bear in mind when we think of the need to learn from the past and avoid its mistakes. It is important that Arab countries develop new policies that work to unify people rather than dividing them.

For Jordan this summit is critical, as it provides the opportunity to restore the political importance of Jordan as a country involved in these crises and building a new phase of Arab understanding will have positive impacts on Jordan. If this attempt fails then Jordan may find itself alone in facing three major issues, the growing economic crisis, the new phase of combatting terrorism and the risks of a failed peace process. On top of this Jordan could face the end of unity on a two state solution, and the inherent complexities of a one state solution, recognizing Israel as a Jewish state.

Arab states need to encounter that Israel’s current narrative which is based on a wider regional peace and rather than focusing on the pending peace process with Palestinians. 

The Trump Administration’s positions on the Middle East must also be addressed in the Arab Summit. This includes the future of the peace process and the potential of strong positions from the US in the region if we cannot find a path for ourselves.  Developing a new and effective Arab strategy for de-radicalization and fighting terrorism is one of the key issues that might help in restoring the Arab cooperation process.

There is not much to be optimistic about in the crises facing the Arab world, but we must find an Arab pathway from the grassroots through a new phase of Arab relations, which starts with credible and smart initiatives.

Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh

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Politics Author: - February 19, 2017

Challenges from southern Syria

The Jordanian efforts in implementing the ceasefire in southern Syria are being challenged by several threats, predominately from the growing Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant”.

Last week a car bomb in al Yadouda in southern Syria left dozens of dead and injured. Some sources reported that a Jordanian terrorist known as “Abu Rayyan Al Ma’ani” conducted the suicide attack in in the province of Dara’a near the Jordanian border.

The car bomb attack was one of several launched by terrorist groups aiming to escalate the situation in the south of the country and are creating chaos on Syria’s southern borders. This comes at a time when Jordan is increasing its efforts to stabilize the border regions by expanding the ceasefire and encouraging groups to join the political process.

Jordan’s new role is likely to upset some of the groups in Syria as well as some countries in the region. Particularly since Russia has praised Jordan’s action in stabilizing the area and the mutual coordination in fighting terrorism.

While many analysts have been calling for Jordan to play this role for a while now, it is not too late to reconsider options according to the new developments.

For Jordan’s national security, it is imperative to have a reliable partner on the Syrian side to coordinate security issues. After the battle of Aleppo there are not many options for Jordan but we should be looking to open channels with the main protagonists in Syria, in this case Russia and the Syrian Army.

With a solid relationship of cooperation, Jordan can achieve strategic gains, however it could also put us in open confrontation with the terrorist groups operating in Syria and its cells everywhere. Despite this, Jordan’s objective must be long term, and with a focus on future strategic interest, make use of its political maneuvers to secure its interests.

Jordan will not be alone in this fight, but taking an active role with partners in dealing with the implications of the battle for the south of Syria and the liberation of Raqqa will put us in a better position to plan and have a strong hand in solving the refugee issues. This will be extremely important, given some of the issues in the Rukban refugee camps and the potential threat they pose to Jordanian national security.

Jordan’s new position will increase the chances of reopening the Jordanian –Syrian border, which would address many of the economic problems related to commercial and economic ties between the two countries going forward. By playing a major positive role in the south of Syria, Jordan could position itself well in rebuilding Syria that could lead to a revival for the Jordanian economy.

In order to be more credible and succeed in achieving these goals, Jordan should start a process of change to be more credible on all levels.

Dr. Amer AL Sabaileh

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

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